Four straight monthly falls in sales agreed point to a thinner completion pipeline
The number of UK properties reaching sales agreed has fallen by more than 5% year-on-year for four consecutive months, according to data recently released by property intelligence firm TwentyCi, pointing to a weaker pipeline of completions in the final quarter of 2026.
TwentyCi's latest Market Update recorded sales agreed volumes down around 8% year-on-year in May and June, followed by declines of 5% in July and 6% in August. Across the first eight months of 2026, sales agreed volumes are down 5.4% year-on-year.
Because sales agreed data captures activity months before completion, the figures offer an earlier read on borrower demand than completion statistics. TwentyCi forecasts 1.16 million residential transactions for 2026, which it said represents a 3.9% decline on the 1.21 million recorded in 2025, though still 5.6% above 2024 volumes.
Completions data tells a different story
Completed transaction figures have looked more resilient, but the picture depends on which HMRC measure is used. HMRC's provisional seasonally adjusted estimate for July 2026 was 96,710 residential transactions, down from 98,390 in June and 1% lower than July 2025, while the non-seasonally adjusted estimate rose 3% month-on-month to 106,620 – 5% higher than the 101,650 recorded in July 2025. HMRC states that its figures represent completions occurring on average two to four months after an initial offer, and do not necessarily represent the current strength of the property market.
Colin Bradshaw, CEO at TwentyCi, said: "The housing market is presenting something of a mixed picture."
"Buyer demand has fallen by more than 5% year-on-year in every month since May, and that sustained weakness will inevitably feed through into completed transactions with a lag," Bradshaw said. He added that headline transaction volumes should not be read as evidence the market is strengthening.
Survey evidence points in a different direction on demand. RICS said last week that its house price balance rose to a five-month high of -28 in August from an upwardly revised -29 in July, while the net balance for new buyer enquiries improved to -19, its highest reading since January. RICS also recorded an agreed sales balance of -17, up from a low of -38 in April, and near-term sales expectations improving from -13 in July to -3 in August. RICS net balances measure the breadth of change reported by surveyors, not transaction volumes.
Swap rates reprice fixed deals
Funding costs have moved against borrowers since the start of September. Moneyfacts said data from Chatham Financial showed the two-year swap rate at 4.26% on Sept. 3, up from 4.06% a month earlier, with the five-year swap rising from 4.16% to 4.36% over the same period. HSBC and NatWest were among major lenders to increase rates from the start of September, and Family Building Society was among a small number to withdraw fixed rate products.
Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts, said pricing margins among major lenders are "under pressure due to renewed volatility in the swap rate market."
Last week, the average five-year fixed residential rate had reached 5.68%, up from 5.64% the previous working day, while the average two-year fixed rate rose to 5.63% from 5.60%. Moneyfacts said the number of available residential mortgage products fell to 7,485 from 7,618.
Bradshaw said rising swap rates add "another layer of uncertainty" and could pressure affordability further if fixed pricing continues to climb.
Supply builds as demand softens
TwentyCi data shows newly listed properties for sale are 2.1% higher year-on-year and at their highest level in a decade. Its demand-to-supply ratio has deteriorated across every major property type, with flats recording the largest decline at 13.2% year-on-year.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voting for a rise to 4%, citing the risk of second-round effects from higher energy prices. The MPC's next decision is scheduled for 17 September.
