TAB’s Duncan Kreeger says market is the worst in 20 years
Mortgage industry figures are pressing Chancellor John Healey for a stamp duty holiday, downsizer relief and the removal of the mansion tax in his Autumn Budget on October 28. The government has already ruled out stamp duty changes and confirmed the £2 million mansion tax threshold.
“We need a bazooka Budget to fix the big stuff,” said Duncan Kreeger, founder of commercial mortgage lender and bridging specialist TAB. “This is the worst I have seen the property market in twenty years: no one wants to sell; no one wants to buy; something’s got to give.”
“[Andy] Burnham campaigned in poetry. He mustn’t govern in management speak,” Kreeger added.
HMRC figures show seasonally adjusted residential transactions fell 1% to 95,220 in August, 2% lower than a year earlier.
Nationwide data shows annual house price growth halved to 0.8% in September from 1.6% in August.
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Stamp duty unchanged
Kreeger said Healey should reform planning if he cannot find money to put into housing. Failing that, he called for a stamp duty holiday of the kind used by Norman Lamont, Alistair Darling and Rishi Sunak.
Burnham has confirmed stamp duty will not change at the Budget. Menzies’ Stephen Hemmings said demand-side schemes would achieve little without action on tax barriers to supply.
Anthony Curtis, director of FORTO Finance, proposed exempting downsizers, such as over-55s moving to a cheaper main home, from stamp duty.
“The cut pays for itself via all the extra transactions,” he said.
Public First research found 35% of would-be downsizers regard stamp duty as a direct barrier to moving, compared with 23% of first-time buyers.
Mansion tax threshold holds
Kreeger said the mansion tax announced at the 2025 Budget should be scrapped. L&C Mortgages’ David Hollingworth said some buyers may delay moving while they assess the cost.
Healey has reportedly ruled out lowering the threshold from £2 million to £1.5 million, which Yopa estimates would have brought 9.4% of London listings into scope, against 5.8% at £2 million. The surcharge will run from £2,500 to £7,500 a year from April 2028.
The OBR expects 165,000 properties to be liable in the first year.
First-time buyer detail due
The Autumn Budget is expected to set out Your First Home, under which first-time buyers of new builds in England would need a 2.5% deposit alongside a 20% government equity loan and a 77.5% mortgage. Lender appetite and the equity loan’s treatment in affordability assessments are unconfirmed.
Hollingworth said buyers need clarity on income caps, price caps and repayment. “The equity loan is not free money,” he said.
Landlord costs in focus
Curtis wants finance-cost relief restored for landlords meeting EPC C, and rent payments included in tenants’ credit profiles. He also wants the 5% second-home surcharge dropped on purchases that add new homes, and VAT on refurbishments and conversions, mostly 20%, cut to 5% or 0%.
Under the Warm Homes Plan published in January, privately rented homes in England and Wales must reach EPC C by October 2030 unless exempt, with required landlord spending capped at £10,000 per property.
Paragon Bank puts average buy-to-let yields at 7.22% in Q3 2026, the highest since 2011. Landlords also face the Renters’ Rights Act and the 2024 rise in the additional-property surcharge from 3% to 5%.
Hollingworth said fewer landlords investing could put further pressure on rents.
The 30-year gilt yield passed 6% on October 1 for the first time since 1998, and UK borrowing costs are the highest in the G7. Gilt yields and swap rates feed through to fixed-rate mortgage pricing.
