All the buildup and reaction as the BoE prepares to make its latest rate decision
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11:00 a.m.: September inflation surge narrows the MPC's options
A worse-than-expected inflation reading has thrown today's decision wide open – and hardened the case for a rise.
UK CPI climbed to 3.5% in September, the ONS confirmed last month, up from 3.1% in August and the highest rate recorded since October 2025. The figure came in higher than most forecasters had anticipated, driven primarily by a surge in motor fuel prices – petrol reached 169.5p per litre in September, while diesel climbed to 192.5p, its highest since July 2022. The reading also marks two full years since inflation was last at or below the Bank's 2% target.
David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, said the scale of the overshoot would cement market expectations for action today. "That will do nothing to ease the recent upward pressure on mortgage rates and is likely to cement expectation of a base rate rise to come in November," he said. "The Bank of England has already stated that the longer that energy prices remain high, the greater the risk of persistent inflation."
Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients, said the figures made a move before Christmas look increasingly hard to avoid. "Swap rates have been volatile in recent weeks, resulting in mixed pricing movements by lenders with some trimming rates while others increase pricing," he said. "Borrowers can protect themselves as much as possible by speaking to a whole-of-market broker and locking into a new product sooner rather than later."
John Phillips, chief executive of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, pointed to the broader picture – but said the direction of travel was clear. "The rise in CPI inflation to 3.5% reflects renewed cost pressures, particularly around fuel and energy, against a continued backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty," he said. "As ever, expert advice remains critical in helping clients navigate an ever-changing market."
The consensus view: September's inflation data has made a rate rise today look less like a question of if and more a question of by how much.
10:50 a.m.: Here’s what to expect today
Bank of England days are always full of their own unique blend of intrigue and drama – and today’s decision is shaping up to be one of the most consequential of the year.
A Mortgage Introducer poll conducted ahead of the decision found that two-thirds of mortgage professionals expect the MPC to raise the base rate to 4% today. Of 143 respondents, 65% backed a rise, 31% expected a hold, 1% predicted a cut, and 3% said the outcome was too close to call.
That represents a dramatic reversal from September, when 57% backed a hold and just 35% predicted a rise. The swing reflects a market that has had to sharply reassess its expectations following UK inflation climbing to 3.5% in September – well above the Bank’s 2% target – and weeks in which major lenders repriced fixed-rate products upward as swap rates climbed. Goldman Sachs, Barclays and UBS Global Research have all forecast a 25-basis-point rise at today’s meeting, citing persistent inflation and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East.
The MPC’s September vote was 6–3 in favour of a hold, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill all dissenting in favour of an immediate rise to 4%. With inflation now 1.5 percentage points above target, that minority view going into today’s meeting looks considerably less like a minority one.
A rise to 4% is now the market’s base case – but with nearly a third of industry professionals still backing a hold, the decision is far from a foregone conclusion.
10:45 a.m.: We’re live!
Welcome along to today’s live blog on the Bank of England decision with Mortgage Introducer! Stay tuned as we provide all the updates from what’s sure to be one of the most closely watched days in the mortgage industry calendar for 2026.
The BoE will be announcing its next call on rates at 12 p.m. today, and we have you covered with all the latest updates and reaction from the mortgage industry.
