Survey: Neither Trump nor Sanders presidency would be good for housing market

by Ryan Smith19 May 2016
A panel of more than 100 real estate experts, economists and academics say that housing growth could take a hit if Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump is elected president.

According to a survey sponsored by Zillow, experts say they expect home values see steady growth in the 3% to 4% range over the next few years. However, 45% said that a Trump presidency would impact their expectations negatively, and just 16% said Trump’s election would have a positive impact on their expectations for the housing market.

Even more panelists felt that the election of Bernie Sanders would be a negative for the housing market; 59% of panelists who expressed an opinion on the matter said a Sanders presidency would negatively impact their housing forecasts, and 65% said their outlook for housing reform would dim if Sanders were elected. The vast majority – 76% – said their forecast for the overall economy would be negatively impacted by a Sanders presidency, compared to 59% for Trump.

So are there any candidates the panel was sanguine about? Perhaps unsurprisingly, most panelists saw Hillary Clinton – widely viewed as the “establishment” candidate – as the safest bet for the housing market. While Clinton’s presidency might not supercharge the housing industry, most experts felt it at least wouldn’t do any harm. While only 33% said Clinton’s election would have a positive impact on their housing forecasts, just 16% said a Clinton presidency would be a negative for home prices. When it came to housing finance, the panelists were more evenly split: 31% said their outlook for housing finance reform would be positively impacted by a Clinton presidency, while 26% said their outlook would dim.

What do you think? Are these housing experts off base in their assessment, or on the money? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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