Major bank economists split on whether the cash rate peaks at 4.6%
ANZ has raised its fixed home loan rates for the second time in just over three weeks. The move comes as Australia’s big four banks pass on the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) latest 0.25 percentage point increase, which took the cash rate to 4.6%, to variable-rate borrowers from 9 October 2026, according to Canstar.
ANZ’s fixed rates rose by up to 0.25 percentage points, taking its one-year rate from 6.49% to 6.69%. That is now the lowest fixed rate offered by any of the four major banks.
Sally Tindall, data insights director at Canstar.com.au, warned variable-rate borrowers to check whether they could cope with another rise, saying there was a chance of “welcoming in 2027 with a cash rate of 4.85%”.
Fixed rates point to more hikes
ANZ is not the only major bank lifting fixed rates. NAB has raised them twice in three weeks, and CBA and Westpac have made increases of up to 0.48 and 0.45 percentage points respectively over the same period. Canstar said the repricing suggests there is a strong chance of further RBA rate rises.
The major banks’ economists are split on whether the next rise comes soon. ANZ and Westpac expect one more increase in November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, while CBA and NAB expect 4.6% to mark the peak.
Variable rates rise across the market
CBA’s lowest variable rate is 6.34%, NAB’s starts from 6.29% and ANZ’s is 6.5%, leaving Westpac the cheapest of the majors at 6.24%. All four rates apply to owner-occupiers paying principal and interest.
More than 40 lenders tracked by Canstar have passed on the full increase, including Bendigo, ING, AMP, Bankwest, St George, and Suncorp. The lowest variable rate among lenders that have announced their new pricing is 5.94%. Canstar expects the average owner-occupier variable rate to settle at about 6.49%.
Tindall said borrowers who had not reviewed their loans could now have a rate starting with a 7, “a figure that was unthinkable even a year ago”.
Repayment changes still weeks away
Borrowers will not see higher repayments straight away. CBA gives at least 20 days’ notice, while Westpac, NAB, and ANZ give at least 30 days. Canstar said many customers would not pay the higher amount for two to three months.
Tindall expected most borrowers to manage the increase, but said “for many it won’t be easy, or pretty”, with some needing to dip into their buffers. She urged anyone who cannot meet the new repayments to contact their lender and seek independent advice. The National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007) can connect them with a free financial counsellor.
