History may offer an unexpected answer
England's potential exit at the semifinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup may carry an unexpected upside for the housing market, according to research from eXp UK.
The estate agency analysed annual house price growth following every World Cup since England's 1966 triumph, mapping performance against the stage at which the side exited each tournament. The findings indicate that exits at the quarterfinal or semifinal stage have historically been associated with stronger property price gains than either early exits or outright victory.
England's sole World Cup win in 1966 was followed by a 4.4% rise in average house prices over the subsequent year. By contrast, across all tournaments in which England reached the quarter-finals or semi-finals, the median annual rate of house price growth in the following year stood at 9.5%.
That figure compares with a median increase of 6.7% recorded after group stage or Round of 16 exits, and 5.2% in years when England failed to qualify altogether.
| Year | England's position | Avg house price WC year (June) |
Avg house price year after WC |
Annual change after tournament (£) |
Annual change after tournament (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | Champion | £2,849 | £2,975 | £126 | 4.4% |
| 1970 | Quarterfinal | £3,565 | £3,949 | £384 | 10.8% |
| 1974 | Did not qualify | £8,081 | £8,501 | £420 | 5.2% |
| 1978 | Did not qualify | £11,097 | £14,480 | £3,383 | 30.5% |
| 1982 | Group stage | £19,526 | £21,573 | £2,047 | 10.5% |
| 1986 | Quarterfinal | £29,435 | £34,554 | £5,119 | 17.4% |
| 1990 | Semifinal | £53,358 | £52,178 | -£1,180 | -2.2% |
| 1994 | Did not qualify | £50,082 | £50,733 | £651 | 1.3% |
| 1998 | Round of 16 | £61,026 | £65,550 | £4,524 | 7.4% |
| 2002 | Quarterfinal | £100,844 | £122,126 | £21,282 | 21.1% |
| 2006 | Quarterfinal | £164,498 | £180,161 | £15,663 | 9.5% |
| 2010 | Round of 16 | £168,675 | £165,071 | -£3,604 | -2.1% |
| 2014 | Group stage | £186,892 | £198,149 | £11,257 | 6.0% |
| 2018 | Semifinal | £231,277 | £232,112 | £835 | 0.4% |
| 2022 | Quarterfinal | £281,116 | £281,585 | £469 | 0.2% |
| 2026 | Semifinal / Final | — | — | — | TBC |
Source: eXp UK. House prices based on Nationwide House Price Index data.
With England facing Argentina at 8pm tomorrow (15 July), the research suggests that even a semifinal defeat could offer some consolation — at least in property market terms.
"A World Cup doesn't directly influence house prices, but major sporting occasions can lift national sentiment and, when this optimism filters through the wider economy, the housing market often benefits too," said Adam Day (pictured right), head of eXp UK and Europe at eXp UK.
"Of course, if given the choice, England fans would happily swap stronger house price growth for a second star on the jersey. But should Argentina end England's run at the semifinal stage, the historic data suggests there could at least be a silver lining, with the deepest tournament exits tending to precede the strongest periods of house price growth."
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