Commercial property has further to fall

The primary and special servicer said a further 25% of industry experts it talked to expect to see a return of CMBS in 2013.

Some 45% of respondents believed UK prices had further to fall with over a third predicting this could be by anything up to 10%.

Despite this 91% of respondents thought investment in commercial property will increase over the next five years, of which 28% believe it will increase by over 20%.

In the same research, respondents showed an appetite for the secondary market with almost two thirds considering investing.

Some 42% of respondents thought commercial property prices in France still had further to fall, with a similar amount for Scandinavia (43%).

Germany was the country where most people (66%), believed that property prices had bottomed out.

For both Spain and Ireland 88% of people believed property prices were still on the decline, with 46% predicting a fall of between 10-20% for Spain and a 30% fall in Ireland.

Some 40% predicted a greater than 20% fall for commercial property prices in Ireland.

Clarence Dixon, managing director of Hatfield Philips, said: “It is reassuring to see that many lenders and commercial property experts are expecting to see a return to the CMBS market as early as next year.

“For a return to volume CMBS transactions, however, much will depend on how quickly the global economy regains equilibrium and moves towards sustained growth which is why we are also witnessing the continued correction, albeit in my opinion the tail end, of the corrections in commercial real estate prices across Europe.”

The research included lenders representing over 50% of UK lending by value, fund managers, venture capital providers and other key industry experts.