Brokers say the post-deadline slowdown reflected distorted timing rather than collapsing demand
To understand the UK housing market in 2026, brokers argue it is necessary first to understand what happened in March 2025.
Analysis of the ONS UK House Price Index shows a sharp but short-lived spike in both prices and sales activity ahead of the April 2025 stamp duty changes. UK average prices reached £268,205 in March 2025, while annual growth temporarily climbed to 5.1 per cent before easing sharply in the following months.
Transaction volumes moved even more dramatically. ONS data recorded 133,663 sales completions in March 2025, followed by 43,449 in April as buyers rushed to complete before stamp duty thresholds were reduced.
Source: ONS UK House Price Index. Red bars = stamp duty deadline month (March 2025) and immediate aftermath (April 2025). Sales volumes for Jan/Feb 2026 not yet published at time of analysis.
The data suggests the post-deadline slowdown reflected timing distortion rather than a sudden collapse in underlying demand. Instead, brokers say the deadline accelerated several months of activity into a single quarter-end period.
Matthew Arena (pictured, top right) of Brilliant Group said the March surge reflected accelerated or “squeezed” demand rather than a fundamental increase in buyer activity, with transaction levels returning to more normal patterns by summer.
Nouran Moustafa (pictured, top left) of Roxton Wealth said the underlying demand had been genuine, particularly among first-time buyers and families already contending with high rents, elevated borrowing costs and broader market uncertainty.
“The stamp duty deadline lit a fire under people,” she said. “It compressed months of decisions into a few weeks. So, I would not call it artificial demand; I would call it accelerated demand. The market was not fake, but it was definitely running on deadline pressure.”
The period also placed significant operational pressure on brokers, lenders and conveyancers as transactions were pushed through before the deadline.
Arena said brokers faced significant operational pressure during the rush period, with advisers attempting to manage completion deadlines alongside delays and communication issues across the conveyancing chain.
“It is of course stressful for all concerned when it comes to the final completion pushes, with homes and sums of money on the line, but much of it is outside the adviser’s control at that stage,” he said.
He also criticised service standards within conveyancing, arguing that brokers were often forced to manage poor communication and delays while trying to keep transactions moving ahead of the deadline.
“Experience, prioritisation and client service win the day; followed by a break after!” Arena added.
Moustafa described the period as “crisis management with a calculator”, with brokers balancing lender turnaround times, solicitor delays and client anxiety simultaneously as buyers rushed to complete.
“Everyone wanted everything yesterday: clients, estate agents, solicitors, lenders and vendors,” she said. “Our job was to keep the deal moving without letting the client lose perspective.”
She said advisers still had to ensure clients did not make poor financial decisions simply to meet the deadline.
The longer-term implications of the 2025 spike are now becoming clearer as annual house price growth normalises. By February 2026, annual UK price growth had slowed to 1.2 per cent, with average prices sitting broadly in line with the March 2025 peak in cash terms.
Arena said the valuation environment had remained broadly stable despite the temporary surge, although he acknowledged there may have been isolated examples of buyers overpaying during the height of competition.
Moustafa warned some buyers may now be reassessing purchases made during the rush period.
“When there is a tax deadline, people can become very focused on ‘saving’ money and forget to ask whether they are overpaying in the first place,” she said, warning that some buyers may have stretched affordability or rushed into unsuitable purchases during the heightened competition.
Despite the post-deadline slowdown, neither broker described the market as fundamentally weak. Arena said the market had stabilised following the volatility created by the deadline-driven surge.
Moustafa added that what followed was “not necessarily collapse” but “the market breathing normally again”. Buyers, she argued, were now more selective, more affordability-led and less willing to be pressured by artificial deadlines.
“A calmer market can actually be healthier if it gives people space to make better decisions,” she said.
