With El Niño strengthening and a stormy winter ahead, brokers have a narrow window to review client cover and close underinsurance gaps before the weather turns
2026 is certainly an extreme weather event year, and it’s not over yet.
After recording our hottest summer since records began, forecasters are now warning of a winter at the other extreme. In early September, the World Meteorological Organisation confirmed that the current El Niño is strengthening faster than expected and could bring with it yet another record-breaking weather event. Likewise, the Met Office has warned us all to expect a wetter, stormier autumn and the early onset of winter conditions.
For brokers and advisors, the headline isn't the forecast itself; worrying though it is, it’s what that extreme volatility does to the range of property risks your clients face, and how to best protect their homes and assets.
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A weather event year
This weather event year is landing on an insurance market with little room to absorb yet more shock. UK insurers paid a record £6.1 billion in property claims in 2025, the highest since the ABI began tracking the figure in 2017. Weather-related claims rose 14% year-on-year, and the average flood payout jumped 60% to around £30,000. Deloitte has forecast that home insurers will pay out more than they collect in 2026, with a combined ratio of 102.1%, before this El Niño has even peaked. Subsidence adds to the pressure: the market has already seen surge years in 2018, 2022 and 2025, and 2026 looks set to follow suit.
Underinsurance remains an insidious risk for your clients
Underinsurance remains a significant and stubborn problem for the UK insurance market to tackle. Rebuild costs have risen sharply, yet many buildings’ sums insured haven't kept pace, and where a property is underinsured the “average” clause can cut a settlement proportionately, even on an otherwise valid claim. Contents cover is just as vulnerable: replacing possessions at today's prices routinely costs more than clients estimated when they originally set their limit.
We’ve said it before, but as intermediaries you really are the protection front line. This is the moment to review sums insured, walk your clients through exclusions and excesses, and pay particular attention to clients with non-standard, unoccupied, and higher-risk properties, which is often where the greatest gaps lie.
As the saying goes, 'prevention is better than cure'
Most winter claims are preventable. Here at Ceta, we talk about a STORM framework (Stopcock, Temperature, Outside, Review, Maintenance), which provides a simple way to guide your clients through the essentials:
1. Stopcock: One of the most critical yet overlooked aspects of home preparedness is shutting off the external water supply. Advise your clients to locate their stopcock and test that it turns off easily.
2. Temperature: Have chimneys swept and inspected before winter. Ensure electric heaters are fit for purpose, kept at least a metre from anything flammable, and never left unattended. Make sure boilers are serviced.
3. Outside: Replace missing or broken tiles before the snow arrives. Clear gutters, drains and soakaways of leaves, debris and summer growth so rain and meltwater can drain away rather than forcing their way in.
4. Review: Ensure comprehensive home insurance is in place and adequate needs. This is particularly important for clients with non-standard properties. Many homeowners are unaware of policy exclusions or limitations that could leave them vulnerable.
5. Maintenance: Insulate exposed pipework in unheated spaces, including external pipes and taps, and keep heating at a minimum temperature (around 14°C) to stop pipes freezing. Keep an eye the property's general condition and fix any issues proactively.
The window to strengthen a client's position runs now through autumn, not January, when they may already be managing a claim.
And finally…
Ensure you have a good insurance provider behind you, one that specialises in both standard and non-standard property risks, especially those in flood-risk locations, non-standard constructions, unoccupied homes and those with complex claims histories.
2026 is shaping up to be an unprecedented weather-event year. Act now, review client cover, close underinsurance gaps, and share practical preparation advice. In doing so, you will position yourself as a trusted adviser when the weather turns, and it undoubtedly will.
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