HMRC data shows encouraging uptick
Industry professionals have welcomed the latest HMRC property transactions data, showing property transactions up by just over a fifth in a year.
The number of UK residential transactions in October was 100,410 - 21% higher than the same time 12 months before, and 10% higher than in September.
Non-residential transactions in October 2024 were 14,150, 42% higher than October 2023 and 40% higher than the month before.
Nicholas Mendes (pictured left), mortgage technical manager at broker John Charcol, said the data indicated growing confidence in the housing market.
“However, it’s been far from smooth sailing for mortgage brokers, with challenging conditions persisting,” Mendes told Mortgage Introducer. “That said, this data is encouraging and reflects what many in the market are feeling - more buyers are looking for support with financing, particularly in residential purchases.
“The commercial property market stands out even more, with transactions soaring 40% month-on-month and 42% year-on-year. Non-seasonally adjusted figures hit a record 14,990, the highest since data collection began in 2005. This highlights robust investment in commercial and mixed-use properties, presenting brokers with new opportunities to delve into specialised lending products and solutions.”
Figures showing residential transactions increasing from 600,100 in 2023–2024 to 668,750 in 2024–2025, underscore the market’s growing momentum and points to a broader recovery, Mendes believes.
“For brokers, this uptick is welcome news, offering fresh opportunities to assist first-time buyers, movers, and investors. Nonetheless, caution is key. Rising mortgage rates and forecasts for 2025 could dampen activity, while stamp duty changes might make things tougher for first-time buyers. Even so, as we wrap up 2024, there’s reason to be optimistic. The property market is bustling, and brokers are in a primed position to help clients navigate it.”
Mark Harris (pictured centre), chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, believes a reduction in mortgage rates in recent months has played its part.
“Lower mortgage rates continue to boost market activity and improve transaction numbers,” Harris said. “With two interest rate cuts behind us in recent months and more to come next year, buyers feel better able to commit to a property purchase.
“Swap rates have also eased, which should enable lenders to offer lower mortgage rates. This will be welcome after a few weeks where pricing has edged upwards again."
Read more: "Ho, ho, high!" Inflation dampens Christmas base rate cut hopes
The post-Election effect
For Nick Leeming (pictured right), chairman of Jackson-Stops estate agents, the uncertainty surrounding the General Election finally being resolved was significant too.
“The recent uptick in property transactions in October can be largely attributed to the aftermath of the General Election in July,” Leeming said. “The Labour party's decisive victory provided much-needed political stability, akin to a North Star in the night sky for home buyers.”
He continued: “This sense of certainty invigorated the market, encouraging buyers to act swiftly, especially with the looming Autumn Budget prompting a rush to finalise deals before any potential policy shifts, particularly for second homes and buy-to-let investors.
“However, this surge is not driven by speculative buyers seeking a change of scenery. Current activity reflects a market where transactions are propelled by necessity. Buyers are moving with purpose, driven by personal circumstances rather than opportunistic investments.”
Leeming said that his business is continuing to note prolonged transaction times, increasing the risk of chains breaking down. This October spike is likely the last significant burst of activity for 2024, he suggested.
“With the autumn Budget behind us, the groundwork laid this year on planning reform and revisiting financial services regulation sets a firmer foundation for the property market to prosper in 2025,” he reasoned. “Supply and demand imbalances remain, but there are promising opportunities for growth and stability on the horizon.”
A ‘quite significant increase’ in transaction numbers compared with the same time last year shows how reduced interest rates have encouraged buyers and sellers to be active, believes Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance.
“Although we are still some way off the highs of previous years, the confidence in the market is promising,” Aboody declared. "We also need to realise that the full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around spring next year.
"Let's hope a further cut in interest rates comes before then, helping the market stay productive and confident."
As risk director of Legal & General Surveying Services, Malcolm Webb is encouraged to see borrower confidence continue to grow, with healthy gains in new listings and agreed sales.
“First-time buyers continue to lead the charge, representing over a third of all sales,” said Webb. “As we go into the new year, we could see a jump in first-time buyers looking to complete before the new, lower Stamp Duty thresholds come into effect.”
Meanwhile, Chris Little, chief revenue officer at finova considers that the data highlights the resilience of the housing market - it remains in good shape, even despite pre-Budget jitters last month.
“Mortgage approvals have also reached a two-year high, signalling renewed confidence from both buyers and lenders after a few challenging years,” said Little. “Equally, the re-emergence of competitive sub-5% products, with rates as low as 3% for those able to shop around, is adding an extra layer of optimism. There’s a growing sense of light at the end of the tunnel, especially with another potential base rate cut on the horizon.
“Looking ahead, the expected rush in transactions early next year, driven by Stamp Duty changes, is a golden opportunity for lenders to leverage new tech innovations and to streamline their processes. Innovation is likely to take centre stage next year, and Halifax’s bold launch of a 1.5-year fixed-rate remortgage product could hint at what’s to come. As lenders compete to offer buyers greater flexibility as rates stabilise, we’re likely to see even more dynamic products enter the market next year.”
