Sellers are flooding in, prices are diverging, and the path forward remains clouded by trade uncertainty and cooling demand
Canada's housing market entered spring in a state of studied ambivalence. Sales volumes are holding near flat, new listings are climbing, and prices continue to pull in opposing directions depending on the postal code.
The picture that emerges from the latest data, compiled by Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, is one of a market searching for direction, and not yet finding it.
Nationally, approximately 426,900 homes changed hands in April on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, edging 0.7% higher from March.
That slight uptick, the first positive movement in three months, offered only the thinnest reed of comfort for brokers who have spent much of the spring navigating fragile buyer confidence and an uncertain economic backdrop.
The spring market's biggest story may ultimately be the one playing out on the supply side. New listings rose in roughly two-thirds of urban markets in April, producing a 4.1% nationwide increase from March that all but reversed the declines recorded earlier this year.
Quebec City led the charge with a 12.4% month-over-month jump, followed by Kitchener-Waterloo at 10.5%, Ottawa at 10.2%, and Winnipeg at 8.2%.
Regional fortunes continue to diverge
In Quebec and Nova Scotia, buyers are gaining leverage as inventory builds.
In Ontario and British Columbia, supply has remained stubbornly elevated for months, maintaining downward pressure on prices in markets already battered by years of correction.
Alberta and New Brunswick are seeing inventory levels build gradually from low bases, while Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador continue to see supply contract.
Price trends mirror that complexity. Home values are broadly depreciating in B.C. and Ontario while appreciating elsewhere — though April introduced some noteworthy wrinkles.
Toronto's MLS Home Price Index was flat on a monthly basis for the first time in nearly a year, a data point that will interest brokers watching for any stabilisation signal in Canada's largest city.
Despite ongoing rate volatility and affordability challenges, Janet Boyle of Royal Bank of Canada says Canada’s housing market is showing early signs of recovery as buyers re-enter with a more measured mindset.https://t.co/8CXWjku8JU
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) May 6, 2026
Calgary and Edmonton also broke from their respective year-long declining streaks, posting monthly index gains of 0.3% and 0.9%.
The flipside came in Saskatchewan, Montreal, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, where local indexes fell.
Overall, Canada's aggregate MLS Home Price Index declined for the 15th consecutive month in April, slipping 0.2% from March.
At 4.1% below year-ago levels, the rate of annual decline is persistent even if its pace is slowing.
Toronto's tentative floor and the condo weight overhead
The month-over-month price stabilisation in Toronto warrants attention but not celebration, according to Hogue's analysis.
Abundant inventory, particularly within the condo segment, is expected to sustain fierce competition among sellers and keep downward pressure on values in the near term.
That assessment aligns with Urbanation's latest numbers on the state of Toronto's new condo market, where just 246 new units sold in the first quarter of 2026. That's the lowest quarterly figure in 35 years, and 52% below the same period last year.
Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation, described a market effectively standing still: no new project launches for the first time in decades, and a record 4,295 completed but unsold units as of Q1. That represented 92 months of supply at the recent pace of sales.
Hogue sees national market trends continuing to diverge through the coming months, keeping the aggregate picture stagnant at best.
Abundant supply should maintain downward price pressure in Ontario and B.C. in the near term, while tighter supply-demand balances in most other regions support modest price gains.
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