Every BC region posted year-over-year sales declines except South Peace River and the Kootenays
British Columbia’s housing market retreated in September, with residential sales falling 9% year-over-year as surging global oil prices rekindled Bank of Canada rate hike speculation and undercut a recovery that had gathered genuine pace through the summer months.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reported just over 5,250 homes sold through Multiple Listing Service (MLS) systems last month, 26% below the 10-year average for September.
Total sales dollar volume came in at $4.9 billion, down 11% from September 2025, while the average MLS residential price dropped 2.4% to just over $924,000.
Fausto Gaudio of IC Savings argues that home prices remain too disconnected from incomes, making it increasingly difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market and highlighting the need for a broader affordability reset. https://t.co/3PehdHgrJn
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 13, 2026
An encouraging summer, then a reversal
BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said September’s decline followed “an encouraging summer” in which BC had shown signs of gradual recovery.
A sharp spike in global oil prices ended that momentum, pushing financial markets to begin pricing in the possibility of a Bank of Canada rate hike at the October decision.
WTI crude climbed more than 35% in the weeks following an escalation in Middle East conflict, pushing past $90 per barrel and rekindling inflation concerns that had been largely dormant through the first half of 2026.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem warned in April that if oil prices continued to rise and remained elevated, “the risk that higher energy prices become ongoing generalized inflation increases” — language that has taken on fresh relevance as prices have held at elevated levels through September.
For mortgage brokers in the province, rate hike speculation carries real weight independent of any actual policy move.
In a market where many buyers are already grappling with affordability constraints, the prospect of rising borrowing costs can be enough to delay decisions and suppress demand well before any central bank announcement is made.
Bank of Montreal (BMO) chief economist Doug Porter, in an interview with Canadian Mortgage Professional, said the Bank of Canada’s language following its most recent rate hold suggested it was monitoring the oil price risk closely without yet treating it as a trigger for tightening.
“The longer these oil prices stay at these levels, the less confident I am in that call. It does increase the risk that the Bank at one point might feel that they have to raise interest rates,” he said.
Weakness spreads across BC markets
September’s contraction was nearly provincial in scope. Every BC region posted year-over-year sales declines except South Peace River and the Kootenays, a narrow carve-out that offered little relief at the provincial level.
Year-to-date, approximately 51,000 homes have sold across BC in 2026, running about 6% below the pace set during the same stretch in 2025.
The result continues a difficult year marked by persistent softness, which has been tracked throughout 2026 from the province’s faltering start through its stalled mid-year recovery.
BCREA’s second-quarter 2026 housing forecast, published in April, had already projected full-year MLS residential sales would fall 2.1% to approximately 69,000 units. That's a significant downgrade from earlier projections laid out in BC home sales outlook for 2026 and the expected rebound in 2027.
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