Association projects a soft 2026 before pent‑up demand returns
The British Columbia housing market looks set for another year of subdued activity in 2026, with the province’s real estate board pointing to a mix of global uncertainty, higher‑for‑longer borrowing costs and a sluggish economy weighing on buyers.
In its 2026 Second Quarter Housing Forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) said Multiple Listing Service residential sales in the province are expected to fall 2.1% this year to 68,700 units before climbing 7.7% in 2027 to 74,000 transactions.
“The housing market continues to be challenged by persistent global headwinds and a struggling economy,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said.
The association’s accompanying chart of MLS home sales by board indicated that activity in 2026 is projected to dip across all regions, with a modest rebound in 2027.
Lower Mainland/Southwest transactions continue to dominate overall sales volumes, followed by the Thompson/Okanagan and Vancouver Island/South Coast boards, while Northern BC and Kootenay make up a smaller share of the market.
On pricing, BCREA highlighted the impact of softer demand in the province’s costliest areas.
“With active listings at their highest level since 2015, and additional pressure from elevated new‑home inventory, we anticipate the average price in BC will fall by 1.4% in 2026 to $939,800, down from $952,930 in 2025,” the forecast said.
“This decrease largely reflects disproportionate weakness in more expensive markets in the Lower Mainland, casting downward pressure on the broader provincial average price.”
For mortgage professionals, affordability remains stretched, yet years of constrained supply and population growth have built up demand that could re‑emerge quickly once rate and economic conditions stabilize.
Ogmundson said that “improved affordability in many markets combined with several years of pent‑up demand creates conditions for a rebound, though households will likely need a prolonged period of stability to re‑enter the market.”
Meanwhile, British Columbia’s resale housing market stayed in a low gear in March, with the province posting just 5,766 MLS residential transactions. That's 3.6% below the same month a year earlier and more than a third under its 10‑year March average.
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