New Realtor.com data shows a partial rebound in Canadian cross-border home shopping, but interest remains well below pre-tariff levels
Canadian homebuyers are cautiously re-engaging with the United States property market after a tariff-driven retreat, but new data from Realtor.com makes clear the damage from 2025's trade war has not been fully undone, and the Sun Belt is where the recovery is most visible.
In the first quarter of 2026, Canadians remained the No. 1 source of international home-shopping demand on the US platform, accounting for 37.8% of international traffic.
That's up from a tariff-shocked low of 34.8% in the first quarter of 2025, but still meaningfully below the 41.8% share recorded before the trade war took hold in early 2024.
The partial recovery tracks a broader international uptick: international home shoppers accounted for 1.6% of online shopping demand on Realtor.com in the first quarter of 2026, up from 1.2% in the first quarter of 2020.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 11th chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026, replacing Jerome Powell. For Canadian mortgage brokers, the leadership change carries real implications, even though the Fed sets no policy in Ottawa.https://t.co/0WqGI1GQaH
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) May 25, 2026
Sun Belt cities lead the Canadian comeback
The geographic contours of Canadian interest in US real estate are sharply defined.
According to the Realtor.com data, Cape Coral, Florida topped all markets with 71.0% of its international demand coming from Canadian buyers, followed by Naples, Florida at 70.9%, Phoenix at 66.9%, North Port, Florida at 66.2%, Tampa at 58.8%, and Riverside, California at 56.0%.
Year-over-year gains in those same markets between the first quarter of 2025 and 2026 were among the strongest nationally.
Cape Coral led with a 9.2 percentage-point increase, followed by Naples at 8.8 points and Phoenix at 6.7 points, suggesting that while the overall recovery is incomplete, certain warm-weather markets are pulling back Canadian buyers faster than others.
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"Canadian buyers are re-entering the US market, but cautiously," said Jiayi Xu, economist at Realtor.com.
"The rebound in interest we're seeing in Sun Belt and Southwest metros reflects that the appeal of warm weather and relative affordability hasn't faded — but the full recovery of pre-tariff enthusiasm has yet to materialise. These trends underscore how geopolitical and economic policy decisions can have lasting ripple effects on real estate demand, even across borders."
Rounding out the top five international sources of demand on the platform: Mexico at 6.4%, the United Kingdom at 5.9%, Germany at 3.9%, and Australia at 3.0%, according to the Realtor.com report.
What's keeping Canadians on the sidelines
The partial nature of the rebound is consistent with what mortgage professionals across Canada have been observing at the client level.
A new survey from the Royal Bank of Canada found that 37% of Canadians say they do not know enough about the cross-border buying process, while nearly three in ten, or 29%, believe purchasing US property is either too complicated or too expensive, and a further 27% say the tax implications feel overwhelming.
Those concerns are layered on top of persistent sentiment fallout from the trade dispute.
A RAM Development Group survey found that 81% of Canadians now prefer to keep their investments at home, and real estate professionals have noted a sharp uptick in Canadians listing their second homes in the U.S. as tariff uncertainty continues.
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Miami holds, Los Angeles fades
Separate Realtor.com findings paint a shifting picture of which US cities are winning and losing the race for global buyer attention.
Miami maintained its dominance as the top destination for international shoppers overall, capturing 10.3% of all international online views in the first quarter of 2026.
Los Angeles, by contrast, continued a now six-year decline.
"Los Angeles's declining global appeal is less about losing its allure and more about becoming less competitive," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
"Skyrocketing insurance costs from wildfires, and California's high tax burden, have made ownership increasingly punishing for wealthy international buyers. Sun Belt markets now offer a compelling combination of affordability, growth, and lower taxes that Los Angeles simply can't match."
Dallas emerged as a rising alternative, drawing growing interest from North American (excluding US) buyers, whose interest climbed from 1.6% in 2020 to 2.7% in the first quarter of 2026, according to Realtor.com.
European buyers are also showing growing appetite for Miami, where their share of interest rose from 6.9% to 8.0% over the same period.
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