Trade tensions and economic uncertainty are cooling Canadians' appetite for US property
The retreat of Canadian buyers from the United States housing market deepened in June, with new data from Redfin showing a 15.3% year-over-year decline in Canada-based searches for US homes. That's nearly double the 10.1% drop recorded in May.
Taken together with a 25.7% slide in June 2025, the cumulative pullback over two years now stands at roughly 37%, according to an analysis of unique users on Redfin.com and the Redfin app.
The data tracks online searches for homes to buy or rent and serves as an early indicator of demand, though searches do not necessarily translate into completed purchases.
"Canada's economy is starting to recover after a weak start to the year, but uncertainty around trade, jobs, the domestic housing market and inflation is still prompting many Canadians to think twice about making a major purchase," said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin, which is powered by Rocket.
"Buying a home in another country is a particularly big financial commitment, so it makes sense that some Canadians are putting those plans on hold."
The broader context is one mortgage brokers in Canada know well. According to the Ownright Operators Report, economic anxiety has displaced interest rates as the dominant force stalling client decisions in 2026.
New tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump are adding fresh uncertainty to Canada's economy, raising concerns about homebuyer confidence, interest rates, and the path forward for the housing market.https://t.co/2IGPBLg8pM
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 22, 2026
Texas and New York hit hardest
Canada-based home searches fell in 45 of the 50 most populous US metros.
The steepest declines were concentrated in Texas and the Northeast, with San Antonio posting a 51.8% year-over-year drop, followed by Austin at 48.6%, Nassau County, New York at 33.4%, and Houston at 32.5%.
Cleveland recorded a 29.3% decline.
Five metros bucked the national trend: Kansas City led with a 17.6% gain, followed by New Brunswick, New Jersey (11.6%), Nashville (9.4%), and both Sacramento and St. Louis at 9.3%.
A cautious minority still looking south
The pullback follows a broader reassessment of cross-border property ownership by Canadians. A Royal Bank of Canada survey examined what is holding Canadians back from buying US property, finding that 37% of Canadians cited insufficient knowledge of the cross-border buying process as their primary obstacle.
Despite the broader retreat, 11% of Canadians surveyed said they either own or are actively looking to own US property, with quality of life cited as the top motivation by 35% of that group.
Earlier Redfin data had signalled some stabilisation in certain Sun Belt markets. Canadian homebuyers are returning — but only to select US markets, with Realtor.com data from the first quarter of 2026 showing Canadians still accounted for 37.8% of international home-shopping traffic on that platform. That's up from a tariff-shocked low of 34.8% in the first quarter of 2025, though still well below the pre-trade-war peak of 41.8%.
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