A new survey finds economic anxiety, not rates, is freezing deals across Canada's housing market
Economic uncertainty — not interest rates, not affordability — has become the dominant force shaping Canada's mortgage market in 2026, according to a sweeping new survey of real estate professionals from coast to coast.
The Ownright Operators Report, released by Ownright, Ontario's law service for real estate transactions, surveyed 1,015 real estate professionals across Canada (excluding Quebec) between March 27 and April 29, 2026.
It found that 40% of respondents identified broader economic anxiety, including recession fears, as the primary reason buyers and sellers were holding back, compared with employment or income concerns (17%) and interest rates (15%).
Sixty-seven per cent said clients are more risk-averse than they were prior to 2022.
"During the pandemic, people felt pressure to move quickly because they were worried prices would keep rising or rates would change overnight," said Joel Fox, co-founder and chief operating officer of Ownright.
"Even as prices decrease in some markets, buyers are taking more time, asking more questions, and trying to understand where the economy is headed before making a major financial decision. Uncertainty itself has become a market force."
Canadian mortgage consumers entered 2026 with greater financial confidence than a year ago, though a significant share are still tightening their household budgets to stay on top of rising payments, according to CMHC.https://t.co/OI8LtGABgc
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) May 22, 2026
Why hesitation has replaced urgency
The psychological shift in the buyer pool is measurable. Nearly one in four real estate professionals, or 23%, said that US political or economic instability frequently affects transactions in Canada, while a further 69% said it plays a role at least occasionally.
The cumulative weight of that cross-border anxiety has compounded domestic pressures already squeezing deal flow.
CIBC Capital Markets economist Benjamin Tal previously described parts of the Canadian market, particularly Ontario and British Columbia, as being "in a housing market recession," with permits and new home sales dropping dramatically as economic uncertainty and slower population growth weigh on demand.
That view echoes what brokers are now reporting on the ground: clients who qualify, who have the down payment ready, and who genuinely want to buy are simply waiting for a signal that never quite arrives.
Read more: New mortgage brokers, here’s how to survive and thrive in today’s market
The Ownright data reinforces a point mortgage professionals have been making for some time: when sentiment fractures, technical conditions become almost irrelevant.
Forty-one per cent of professionals surveyed said they now recommend fixed-rate mortgages to clients, compared with 30% who would point to variable rates.
The Ownright report adds a new dimension to that picture: it is not only renewers under pressure, but the entire pipeline of prospective buyers and sellers who have effectively paused.
Financing failure and the collapsing deal problem
The hesitation documented in the survey has a compounding practical consequence for brokers.
Thirty-four per cent of respondents identified financing failure as the leading cause of collapsed transactions in 2026, while client indecision ranked as the top driver of delays at 38%, ahead of financing and mortgage approvals (28%).
Thirty-eight per cent said more deals are falling through due to financing issues than two years ago.
The convergence of behavioural and financial risk is a challenge brokers know well.
When buyers delay their commitment, market conditions shift, lender timelines change, and the financing window that was open six weeks ago may no longer apply.
Hesitation, in other words, is not a neutral act, it is itself a deal risk.
Licensed mortgage broker Leah Zlatkin, an expert at LowestRates.ca, has noted that many borrowers are still renewing mortgages taken out when rates were considerably lower, and that even a modest rate increase can reshape a household budget quickly.
Read more: Canada isn’t in a mortgage crisis – but ‘the pressure on homeowners is real’
The administrative burden quietly shrinking the industry
Beyond market conditions, the Ownright report surfaces a structural concern that deserves attention from industry leaders.
More than half of professionals, or 56%, said compliance and administrative demands are reducing the time they have available for clients.
While only 10% reported direct income loss as a result, 30% said they have considered leaving the industry due to regulatory and administrative burdens.
Losing nearly a third of the profession to administrative burnout — at a time when transaction complexity is rising and client needs are more demanding — points to a capacity problem the industry cannot afford to ignore.
On the technology front, adoption is ahead of transformation. Six in 10 professionals said they are using or testing AI-enabled tools, yet 28% believe the real estate transaction system remains structurally outdated.
Looking ahead, sentiment in the industry is fragmented. Forty-three per cent of professionals said they are confident the Canadian housing market will rebound in the next 12 months; 25% are pessimistic; 28% remain neutral.
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
