RBC data shows Toronto stumbles while Vancouver posts a surprise sales rebound
Canada's regional housing markets moved in sharply different directions in August, with Toronto's recovery faltering amid renewed trade uncertainty while Vancouver posted a surprise rebound.
The latest report by Rachel Battaglia, economist at RBC in Toronto, finds the national picture masking dramatically different local conditions.
"We expect the uneven recovery to persist through year-end as regional affordability gaps and structural dynamics evolve at different speeds," Battaglia wrote.
Toronto-based broker Elan Weintraub of Mortgage Outlet told Canadian Mortgage Professional in its reporting on Canada's mortgage market outlook at the 2026 midpoint: "Real estate is very cloudy and volatile. It's extremely micro-fragmented. Certain pockets might be lukewarm to hot. Other pockets are ice cold."
Read more: This province is quietly outpacing Canada's housing market
Toronto stumbles as trade uncertainty bites
Toronto's market snapped a multi-month upward streak in August, with resales falling an estimated 1.3% seasonally adjusted, the first decline since March.
Battaglia said the pullback "could reflect renewed angst amid the trade war escalation, though stimulative fiscal policy, the new housing rebate, and pent-up demand should offer some counterweight."
Price momentum also reversed, with the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark slipping in August after a string of monthly gains.
New listings fell 14% year-over-year, a steeper decline than the 2.1% year-over-year drop in sales, keeping a floor under prices despite softer demand.
Ottawa offered a brighter note, edging above year-ago price levels for the first time since November 2025.
Montreal saw new listings climb an estimated 7.1% seasonally adjusted from July, extending the city's gradual inventory build throughout 2026, though poor affordability continues to suppress resale volumes.
Toronto’s condo downturn continues. GTA condo sales fell 2.6% in August while average prices dropped 3.6%, according to TRREB.
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 4, 2026
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Vancouver bounces back, but weakness lingers
Vancouver posted August's relative bright spot, with resales rising an estimated 8.5% seasonally adjusted from July, more than reversing a 4.5% decline the previous month.
New listings surged 12% month-over-month, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio back into buyer-friendly territory.
Prices remain in decline, though the rate of deterioration is easing.
Battaglia cautioned that "further depreciation may be needed to unlock pent-up demand and keep resales growing on a sustained basis."
Read more: Vancouver and Fraser Valley home sales deepen buyer's market
RBC continues to rank Vancouver as the weakest of Canada's six major markets, a standing the bank expects to hold through year-end.
Calgary retreated sharply in August, with resales sliding more than 9% seasonally adjusted and erasing earlier summer gains.
Condos bore the brunt, with prices roughly 8% below year-ago levels, while detached homes held up considerably better at just 1.1% annually.
The sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 0.52 – its lowest point since the pandemic – though it remains within balanced market territory.
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