Housing expectations slip while personal finances hold firm in September's Nanos survey
Canadian consumer confidence was little changed in the four-week tracking period ending September 4, but the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI) masked a widening divide: Canadians feel reasonably secure about their jobs and finances while growing less certain about where the housing market is heading.
The composite index registered at 51.80, marginally above the prior week's reading of 51.72 but down from 53.00 four weeks earlier.
Though the result sits above the neutral 50-point mark and the 2026 average of 51.10, it represents a pullback from the August high of 53.38 and remains well below the index's 12-month high of 54.19 and the long-run average of 54.70 recorded since 2008.
"Views on personal finances and job security were stronger, reflected in a Pocketbook Index score of 54.83," said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research Corporation in Ottawa.
"Expectations for the economy and housing were weaker, leaving the Expectations Index at 48.76 and below the neutral 50-point mark."
Housing expectations pull back
The September data shows a notable retreat in optimism around residential real estate. The share of Canadians expecting property values in their neighbourhood to rise over the next six months fell to 32.67%, down from 38.05% four weeks earlier, a decline of more than five percentage points in a single month.
Broader economic expectations weakened alongside it. The Expectations Index, which captures forward-looking views on the economy and housing market, slipped to 48.76 from 51.31 four weeks prior, crossing back below the neutral threshold.
Some 41.21% of respondents anticipate the economy will be weaker six months from now, compared with just 20.10% expecting improvement.
The retreating outlook on property values is unlikely to surprise mortgage brokers navigating a cautious buyer pool. Earlier this year, economic anxiety — not interest rates or affordability — had become the primary force shaping deal flow across Canada in 2026, with two in five real estate professionals identifying recession fears as the main reason buyers are holding back.
Matt Fabian of TransUnion Canada says tariffs are unlikely to significantly affect mortgage delinquency rates nationally, but some regions could see increased strain if trade-related job losses occur.https://t.co/kHSA1ecJap
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 8, 2026
Pocketbook resilience steadies the index
Not all of the September data pointed in a negative direction. The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index — which tracks perceptions of personal finances and job security — edged up to 54.83 from 54.70 four weeks earlier, with approximately 62% of respondents describing their employment situation as secure or somewhat secure.
Canadian consumer confidence in late July showed a near-identical split, with the Pocketbook Index outpacing a more guarded Expectations component.
The divergence now appears entrenched as Canadians are not worried about their paycheques, but are increasingly circumspect about what the economy, and the housing market in particular, will deliver next.
The BNCCI is drawn from a random dual-frame telephone survey of 1,020 Canadians, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by Bloomberg and conducted by Nanos Research.
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