TD Economics sees national prices dipping in 2026 as regional divides widen
Canada's resale housing market is on track to finish 2026 sharply divided by region, a dynamic with direct implications for mortgage brokers advising clients on everything from purchase negotiations to renewal strategies.
That is the central finding of TD Economics' Provincial Resale Market Outlook, released July 3, by economist Rishi Sondhi and economic analyst Matt Palucci.
The bank holds its national average home price forecast unchanged at a 0.3% dip in annual average terms for 2026.
National sales growth has been downgraded modestly following a weaker-than-expected first quarter. TD does not see sales recovering to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of 2027, constrained by weak population growth and soft labour market conditions through the forecast horizon.
Saskatchewan leads the country
The clearest outperformer is Saskatchewan, where year-on-year price growth was approaching double digits in May 2026 at approximately 9%, according to TD, with sales levels remaining elevated relative to historical norms.
Affordability in the province sits within long-term ranges, a rarity among Canadian provinces, which TD expects to sustain strong buyer activity through both 2026 and 2027, making Saskatchewan the projected leader in provincial price growth across both years.
Newfoundland and Labrador is similarly firm, with prices up nearly 6% year-to-date, supported by commodity-linked income gains and tight supply-demand conditions, though TD sees that pace moderating as interprovincial migration slows.
Robert Hogue and Rachel Battaglia of Royal Bank of Canada say affordability reached its best level since early 2022, with Toronto and Vancouver leading the recovery while regional markets continue to see mixed results.https://t.co/eUrQr438Ex
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) June 30, 2026
For brokers, the on-the-ground reality in Saskatchewan is constrained supply and pre-approved buyers competing for limited listings.
Shawna MacDonald, a Saskatoon-based mortgage broker with The Mortgage Associates, previously told Canadian Mortgage Professional that inventory pressure is directly driving prices higher.
"We're still seeing an absolute lack of inventory and lots of clients sitting preapproved, waiting in specific areas," MacDonald said. "That's really driving up the housing market and increasing price points."
Brokers monitoring how Canada's housing markets are diverging sharply by province will find national averages offering little practical guidance when client conversations now hinge on local supply, local employment, and local affordability.
Ontario and B.C. upgraded for H2, but conditions remain soft
In Ontario and B.C., TD upgraded its second-half 2026 sales expectations after a sluggish first half, pointing to pent-up demand and early signs that buyer and seller price expectations are becoming more closely aligned.
Despite the improvement, Ontario prices are still projected to slip further in the near term before turning positive in 2027, and B.C. prices are expected to move roughly sideways.
Condo markets in both provinces face continued downward pressure. Sal Guatieri, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, was direct in recent remarks to CMP: "Unfortunately, the soft housing markets in Ontario and BC likely will not receive much support from lower borrowing costs anytime soon."
A notable tailwind for the second half is the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which TD Economics forecasts drifting lower through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, a development with meaningful implications for fixed mortgage rate pricing.
Canada's May home sales data showed momentum already building ahead of summer, with the national average sale price crossing $700,000 for the first time in nearly two years, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Alberta's story is more complicated. Prices are up just 2.5% year-to-date, year-on-year, a sub-trend gain reflecting elevated resale supply and a normalization of activity from the heated 2023–2025 period.
TD has downgraded its 2026 price forecast for the province to a modest gain, though it expects improved activity next year as strong interprovincial migration and solid wage growth reassert themselves.
In Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, where average prices now sit 80–90% above their pre-pandemic levels as of May 2026, according to TD, are slowing rapidly.
Tracking the sharp deceleration under way in both bond yields and those Atlantic markets will be essential for brokers whose clients are navigating renewal decisions in those provinces before year-end.
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