BCREA’s Q4 forecast signals a rough year-end as Vancouver prices and sales continue to retreat
British Columbia recorded 5,670 home sales in October, an 11% year-over-year decline, as the province’s housing market extended its prolonged retreat under persistent global economic pressures, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) said.
The October figures arrived alongside the association’s fourth-quarter housing forecast, which projects provincial MLS residential sales will fall 4.5% in 2026 to approximately 67,000 units.
Lower Mainland continues to bear the brunt
The regional divide has grown more pronounced through the year. Greater Vancouver posted a 10% year-over-year drop in October, with just over 2,000 units sold.
The Fraser Valley is forecast to record a 4.4% decline to 11,000 units for the full year, while Chilliwack faces the steepest projected drop in the province, an 18% slide to 1,900 units, from 2,300 in 2025.
It marks a continuation of the sales pressure that has defined B.C.’s housing market through 2026, with every month on record this year logging year-over-year shortfalls.
The average provincial sale price in October stood at $949,832, down 2.8% from $977,117 a year earlier.
Active listings across the province are at their highest level since 2015, with new-home inventory also elevated, a combination that is exerting steady downward pressure on values.
BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said expensive urban markets face a difficult path to recovery.
“Recoveries in more-expensive regions of the province are dependent on a retracing of rates and oil prices such that prospective buyers regain confidence after several volatile quarters,” he said.
Doug Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal (BMO) in Toronto, told Canadian Mortgage Professional earlier in 2026 that the province’s market was caught in a bind.
“We’ve had this backup in long-term bond yields, which is threatening to push up longer-term mortgage rates,” he said.
“It’s tough for the housing market on both fronts.”
Affordability buffer shields Interior markets
Not every corner of the province is facing the same pressure. Kamloops recorded a 12% rise in October sales, and Interior markets have demonstrated relative resilience compared to the broader provincial trend throughout 2026.
Northern BC is projected to close the year with around 4,000 unit sales, just 1.6% below 2025. It remains the only major regional market in the province where average prices sit below $500,000, with values standing at $424,053 in October, down 4.7% year-over-year.
BCREA economist Amit Sidhu said relative affordability is providing a meaningful cushion.
“I think that just the relative affordability of the region is really helping sort of insulate the area from some of these broader pressures,” Sidhu said, “because perhaps for a lot of people that financial burden isn’t as much of a pinch or a squeeze as it is in areas such as the Lower Mainland.”
For 2027, the BCREA forecast projects a 7.2% rise in provincial sales alongside price growth of 2.4%, bringing the provincial average to $964,200 — contingent on easing borrowing costs and a de-escalation of Canada’s trade dispute with the United States.
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