Canadian consumer confidence climbs despite tariff threat

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI) rose to 52.55 in the week ended July 24, its highest reading since February, as Canadians' concerns about a weakening economy and falling property values gradually eased, even as fresh US tariff threats and oil price pressure cloud the outlook.

The composite index, which tracks perceptions related to personal finances, job security, economic strength, and real estate values among approximately 1,000 Canadians, climbed from a 2026 trough of 46.31 on April 10. That's a low that coincided with peak trade-war anxiety following the re-election of US President Donald Trump in November 2024.

According to Nanos Research, which commissions the weekly survey for Bloomberg, the index has averaged 50.81 so far in 2026, well below its long-run average of 54.71 since 2008.

A score above 50 indicates net positive views about the economy; a score below 50 signals net negative views.

A tale of two sub-indices

"Canadian consumer confidence remained modestly positive in late July," said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research Corporation in Ottawa.

"The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index registered 52.55, slightly above its level four weeks earlier. Assessments of personal finances and job security were stronger, with the Pocketbook Index at 54.84, while views on the economy and housing market were more restrained, with the Expectations Index at 50.27. Overall sentiment remained above the neutral threshold but below the index's long-term average."

The Pocketbook Index — which captures personal finances and job security — climbed from 51.82 four weeks earlier and from 52.92 three months prior.

The forward-looking Expectations Index, based on views of the broader economy and real estate prices, registered barely above the neutral threshold of 50, and still well below its 12-month high of 51.92 and its 12-month average of 47.65.

The underlying individual measures reflect the same split. On personal finances, 13.96% of respondents said they were better off than a year ago, up from 11.63% four weeks earlier and above the 2026 average of 13.62%, though still below the long-run benchmark of 17.34% since 2008, according to Nanos.

Views on the Canadian economy were more subdued: just 20.08% of respondents said the economy would be stronger in six months, while 34.45% expected it to weaken.

On real estate, 32.58% of respondents expected property values in their neighbourhood to rise, down from 38.21% four weeks ago and below both the 2026 average of 35.02% and the long-run average of 39.89%.

Job security readings remain an outlier. A combined 54.94% of respondents described their employment situation as secure or somewhat secure, lower than four weeks prior when the reading was 63.22%, but broadly consistent with the 2026 average of 62.99%, according to the report.

Risks remain and brokers are watching closely

The recovery in sentiment may prove fragile. US President Trump escalated tariff threats against Canada in the final week of July 2026, a development that could reintroduce uncertainty for both consumers and businesses.

Oil and gasoline prices have also risen since the reignition of conflict between the US and Iran, raising concerns about a fresh inflation shock that could complicate the Bank of Canada's rate path.

Bank of Montreal (BMO) chief economist Doug Porter told CMP that his economists are "getting ever so slightly more positive" about the forecast, even without expecting a major upsurge in activity. That cautious optimism appears consistent with a confidence reading that remains above 50 but well short of the 2026 high of 54.19 recorded on February 27.

New tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump are adding fresh uncertainty to Canada's economy, raising concerns about homebuyer confidence, interest rates, and the path forward for the housing market.https://t.co/2IGPBLg8pM

— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 22, 2026

For brokers, the most actionable signal in the Nanos data may be the real estate sub-index. Just 32.58% of respondents expect property values in their neighbourhood to rise over the next six months. That's below both the 2026 average of 35.02% and the long-run average of 39.89% since 2008, according to Nanos Research.

Those figures reinforce the picture painted by the Bank of Canada's July 2026 rate decision and its implications for variable-rate mortgage holders: the housing recovery remains gradual, buyers remain cautious, and the rate environment is unlikely to shift meaningfully before year-end.

Regional picture points to Quebec leading recovery

The regional breakdown in the July 24 Nanos data reveals meaningful divergence across Canada that mortgage professionals in different provinces will want to watch.

Quebec posted the highest economic mood score of any region at 56.62, well above the national reading of 52.55 and its own 12-month average of 55.94.

Atlantic Canada registered 52.99 and Ontario 51.28, both above the neutral threshold but below their own 12-month averages of 53.12 and 47.42 respectively.

British Columbia came in at 51.20, while the Prairies sat at 50.23, the weakest regional reading nationally, according to Nanos.

The age and income breakdowns are equally instructive. Canadians aged 30 to 39 posted the second-highest confidence reading by age group at 53.52, while those aged 50 to 59 recorded the weakest at 50.41.

Across income brackets, the $45,000 to $59,999 cohort logged the highest confidence at 55.41, while the highest earners — those making $75,000 or more annually — registered only 51.77, below the national average.

Those findings align with the Bank of Canada's own assessment delivered at the July 15 rate announcement, when Governor Tiff Macklem held borrowing costs steady for a sixth consecutive meeting at 2.25%.

"After stalling over the past year, economic growth looks to have resumed in Canada," Macklem said.

"While US trade policy continues to be a headwind, consumers have been resilient and businesses are adapting."

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