New dwelling commencements set to keep falling before a delayed rebound from late 2027
Queensland's housing recovery is being pushed back to late 2027, with dwelling commencements continuing to fall even as underlying demand for homes remains strong, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA) and separate data released this week by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).
Michael Roberts, executive director – Queensland at the HIA, said population growth, household formation and an accumulated shortage of homes continued to underpin housing demand, but the current cycle was being driven by restrictive financial conditions, weaker confidence and policy changes rather than a lack of underlying demand.
"Queensland's housing challenge has not gone away," Roberts said.
Established home prices are expected to recover during 2027, with new home sales likely to follow dwelling commencements as they begin to recover from late 2027, the HIA said.
Detached and multi-unit starts both fall in the March quarter
Detached house commencements in Queensland totalled 5,930 in the March quarter of 2026, down 6.7% on the previous quarter. The HIA expects detached starts to reach 25,140 for the full 2026 calendar year, before climbing to 26,020 in 2027, 26,570 in 2028 and 26,760 in 2029.
Multi-unit commencements fell further, totalling 4,940 in the March quarter, down 8.0% on the previous quarter. The HIA expects a further decline in the following quarter before starts gradually improve through the second half of 2026, forecasting 17,760 multi-unit commencements for the full year, rising to 18,390 in 2027, 19,180 in 2028 and 20,280 in 2029.
Roberts said any lift in commencements from late 2027 should not be mistaken for a resolution of the underlying shortage, describing it instead as a delayed and constrained response to a shortfall that has already built up over time.
He said housing affordability would continue to deteriorate unless policy settings supported more investment and construction, adding that reforms enabling supply at one level of government would achieve little if policies elsewhere discouraged it.
Median prices ease as loan commitments retreat
Separately, REIQ data for the June 2026 quarter shows Queensland's property market cooling after several years of rapid growth. The statewide median house price eased 0.91% over the quarter to $983,000, though it remained 16.57% higher than a year earlier. The median unit price fell 1.22% over the quarter to $810,000, still up 17.29% annually.
Brisbane's median house price held steady at $1.48 million over the quarter, while Townsville was unchanged at $700,000. Toowoomba was the standout among the major markets, with its median rising 3.03% to $850,000.
REIQ chief executive Antonia Mercorella said the moderation followed several years of exceptional growth that had outpaced much of the rest of the country. "After years of rapid gains, the market is taking a breath", Mercorella said.
Lending data included in the REIQ release points to a broader pullback in activity. Queensland's new housing loan commitments fell 5.9% to 29,543 in the June quarter, a steeper decline than the 5.4% recorded nationally. First home buyer commitments slipped 1.2% over the quarter, while investor commitments led the fall, down 10.1%.
