RICS: Euro worries depress property markets

The results show respondents are now more cautious in both the occupier and investment markets in the face of renewed turmoil in the euro area and a more generally downbeat growth environment.

The investment market has seen the most noticeable turnaround with a material rise in the number of countries where capital values and investment transactions are projected to slip back. European nations continue to feature heavily within this group with France, Greece, Italy and the Netherlands producing amongst the weakest readings.

Singapore meanwhile recorded its fourth consecutive quarterly drop in both activity and price expectations although the availability of funds for investment actually edged up for the first time in a year.

At the other end of the scale Canada continues to buck the negative trend as do a number of other more advanced countries including Japan, Germany and the US.

During the second quarter the shift in sentiment in the occupier market has been less visible but has followed a broadly similar pattern. Indeed a similar list of countries is seeing the weakest trend in both occupier demand and rental expectations with Europe heavily represented; once again Germany is a notable exception.

Canada meanwhile has the strongest reading for expected rental growth, albeit slightly less than during the first three months of the year. Thailand, Russia, China and Hong Kong also appear to have relatively resilient occupier markets for the time being and the recovery in the US still seems to be in place.

Rents are projected to rise rather more modestly in Brazil compared with the first quarter and it is noteworthy that the sharp slowdown in the economy is seeing fresh stock coming on to the market outstripping new demand for space. India also has seen a deterioration compared with the early part of the year.

The number of countries expecting to see a rise in distressed assets coming to the market has changed little over the quarter. Predictably it is once again European countries such as Greece, Ireland and Italy where this trend is likely to be most visible.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: “The re-emergence of the euro crisis allied to generally weaker economic numbers has clearly taken its toll on much of the real estate world although the continuing strength of the market in countries such as Canada, China and Thailand is impressive. However, it remains to be seen whether they can continue to buck the more gloomy trend if the macro data remains disappointing.

“Recent actions from central banks in China, Brazil and Europe provides some reason for encouragement but more stimulus may be needed to ensure the global economy can steer a path through the increasingly choppy waters.”