MBE 2011: Lending could plummet to £90bn in 2012

Nigel Stockton, financial services director at Countrywide, told brokers at the London Mortgage Business Expo this morning they could recession-proof their businesses by planning for a 30% drop in their income.

Stockton said: "If the eurozone collapses and a second recession hits, then expect the Council of Mortgage Lenders' gross mortgage lending figure to be slashed by £40bn.

"Ask yourselves, where will you be if business is cut by a third? And that's how you can plan should the eurozone collapse."

Stockton added that this scenario was contingent on the eurozone “going doolally” however he did not expect that to happen.

"If it does then expect to cut your revenue, cut your costs and lose any belts or ropes you may have," he added.

Mark Baker, research director at The Wriglesworth Consultancy, said that one of the biggest problems was the persistence politicians had with making the Euro work.

He said: “We’ve got to a crunch point because politicians have become too rigid in their efforts to make the Euro succeed.

Baker added that the least painful option for the eurozone was to inflate and print money.

"I think they will get to that point eventually however the politicians will exhaust all the options before that and it will cost time and be expensive," he said.

"A break up of the eurozone would be nothing compared to Lehmans and that if nothing was done, it would be the mother of all recessions. Lehmans would be nothing compared to a default of Italy."