Industry voices warn Burnham's stamp duty decision puts the brakes on a housing market that cannot afford to stall
Andy Burnham's decision to rule out any changes to stamp duty land tax (SDLT) at the upcoming autumn Budget has prompted debate across the mortgage industry, with brokers divided on whether the move represents a missed opportunity or a necessary pause before meaningful reform.
The new prime minister confirmed on Monday stamp duty will not change at the next Budget, telling reporters: "Yes, I can say that quite clearly. That won't be happening."
Burnham had previously signalled support for combining stamp duty and council tax into a single reformed land value tax, arguing the current council tax system creates regional inequalities. But he cited the scale of the change as reason for delay, acknowledging that reform of that magnitude would take months to legislate. A high-value council tax surcharge introduced under former chancellor Rachel Reeves is already set to take effect in 2028, targeting properties valued above £2 million.
Sam Kirtikar (pictured top left), CEO of The Mortgage Broker, told Mortgage Introducer the ruling at least removed uncertainty for those working in the market. "Confirmation that stamp duty will not change at the next Budget gives the market some short-term certainty, with buyers, brokers, estate agents and lenders all working within the rules as they stand rather than trying to make decisions around continued speculation," he said. But he is clear the status quo is no solution. "Stamp duty remains a significant upfront cost and, in practical terms, can act as a tax on movement."
Was this a missed opportunity?
Sebastian Murphy (pictured top right), group director at JLM Mortgage Network, offered a blunter assessment. "It's a massive own goal," he told Mortgage Introducer. "He had the opportunity to do really well on this and he hasn't."
Murphy argued the fiscal logic for a temporary measure is straightforward, pointing to the precedent set during the pandemic. "The Tories under Sunak applied a stamp duty holiday during the pandemic and you can see the level of stamp duty receipts that were taken post that," he said. "Each time there is a stamp duty holiday or a reduction of any kind, you see a big spike in stamp duty receipts due to the number of sales. It's not guesswork."
In his view, Burnham could have announced a time-limited reduction as an explicit bridge – a short-term measure to unlock the market while comprehensive reform was developed – rather than leaving buyers and brokers in a holding pattern for up to 18 months.
Kirtikar acknowledged the point but cautioned against drawing simple conclusions. "Previous changes caused a backlog of purchases, followed by a huge waterfall when they reduced," he said. "However, no change now should not be confused with the current system working particularly well."
The HMRC annual bulletin, published in July, confirmed stamp taxes generated £20 billion in receipts in 2025 to 2026, partly driven by the reduction in residential nil-rate thresholds introduced in April 2025.
What does stamp duty cost buyers at both ends of the market?
Murphy is direct about the practical impact on clients. "It's absolutely huge," he said. “It's the barrier to stop the market moving on.”
He gave the example of a client who had recently considered downsizing from a property worth approximately £1.2 million to one valued around £800,000 to £900,000. "He said, I've looked at the cost for me to do it, and it's the best part of around £90,000. Why would I do that? Why would I burn £90,000 to move to a smaller house? The economics don't make any sense."
Kirtikar reinforced the point from a borrower's perspective. "In higher-value parts of the country, an otherwise ordinary family home can produce a substantial tax bill, so national thresholds do not necessarily affect every region evenly," he said.
This regional disparity is borne out by data showing London first-time buyers are far more likely to face substantial stamp duty bills than those in the North East, with analysis also showing how stamp duty changes have shifted first-time buyer mortgage behaviour in the months since thresholds were reduced.
What should reform look like?
Murphy argued Burnham is sacrificing an easy win by waiting for comprehensive reform. "If you want your country to feel good about itself, you've got to have a strong housing market," he said. "People have got to believe they can move when they want to move." He called the absence of a temporary measure "really short sighted because it's an easy win".
Kirtikar agreed reform was necessary but urged caution about the shape it should take. "Abolishing stamp duty overnight, or replacing it with a new property tax without proper modelling, could simply exchange one set of problems for another," he said. "It is also a substantial source of Treasury revenue, so calls for abolition must be honest about what would replace that income."
With stamp duty generating billions for the Treasury each year, Kirtikar argued the case for a careful, evidence-led approach rather than a swift overhaul. "Any future reform should improve housing mobility, protect first-time buyers and ordinary homeowners, but avoid creating new cliff edges or regional unfairness," he said. "The housing market needs a stable, long-term tax framework rather than repeated speculation or short-lived incentives that distort behaviour."
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