CPI reached low point in October

Alan Clarke, head of European fixed income strategy at Scotiabank, reckoned inflation will stay flat from September when it stood at -0.1%.

And Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there is a prospect of it falling to -0.2% in October.

The government will release its CPI inflation statistics for October tomorrow morning.

Clarke said: “Overall, this month’s inflation data are likely to mark the low-point in the inflation cycle.

“The powerful petrol price base effects [corresponding period last year] should become more powerful from here, adding close to ½% to headline inflation.

“Furthermore, if the supermarket price war does pause for breath, then there is around 25bp of further upside for inflation over the next 6 months just from prices not falling any more.

“These effects should push headline inflation up close to 1% year-on-year into early 2016. The profile thereafter will depend more heavily on what happens to core inflation.

“We expect a stable reading for core inflation this month and then a gradual upward slope in future months.”

Tombs added: “A sharp fall in education inflation should push CPI inflation down to -0.2% in October from -0.1%. But this almost certainly represents inflation’s low point.”