Consumers expect inflation to soar in 2006

This is the highest level since the Barometer began. If their fears are realised, it could threaten Bank of England expectations that inflation will slide towards the 2 per cent target in 2006.

The balance of respondents who felt that prices had risen in 2005 compared with those felt that it had not jumped sharply in November, to 62 from 48. This suggests that October's fall in the official annual Consumer Price Index - the CPI slid to 2.3 per cent in October from September's 2.5 per cent level, a nine-year high - may not herald a trend of lower inflation and the recent fall could even be reversed in coming months.

Consumers were also increasingly convinced that interest rates would be higher in 12 months' time. The balance of those consumers in November who felt that rates would be higher against those that believed they would be lower rose to 49, the highest level in six months. The rise was the fourth straight monthly increase.

Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets, said: "Far from becoming more relaxed about inflation, as October's fall in official CPI would suggest, consumers have actually become significantly more pessimistic.

"One risk for monetary policy therefore is that higher inflation expectations amongst consumers could result in higher wage demand and mean annual CPI inflation will pick up and head again back towards a nine-year high in the coming months."

The Barometer also reveals that, although they remain distinctly gloomy, consumers believe that their job security and employment prospects have improved. The balance of respondents who thought their job security had improved rose by one point - the first rise in four months - while the percentage of consumers who thought their employment prospects were better was up to 17 per cent from 14 per cent.

Trevor Williams continued: "The results may indicate that a modest turnaround in employment confidence is developing. This view is supported by official data showing solid housing market lending activity and that retail sales continue to recover modestly. However, as positive as it is to see consumers feeling more secure in their jobs, it must still be emphasised that job security remains fragile. The monetary authorities would hope to see the improvement in job prospects translate into increased retail spending over the Christmas period."