CML looks at how far mortgage approvals data can be used to predict future lending

Essentially, the research finds that -

* Not all approvals make it through the process to become advances,

although typically more than 95% do on an annualised basis.

* However, there is significant variation in the time lag between

approval and advance. 50-60 days seems typical for a house purchase

loan, and 40-50 days for a remortgage.

* Despite their imperfections, approvals are a helpful guide to the

likely level of advances one to two months ahead.

The full analysis contains information about the various sources of mortgage approvals data, and about how they can be used to forecast advances.