Intermediaries experienced their busiest start to a year since the stamp duty rush
A wave of front-loaded borrower demand, driven by geopolitical turmoil and rising inflation expectations, helped push Q1 2026 case volumes to their highest level since the stamp duty rush, according to the latest Mortgage Market Tracker by the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA).
The average number of cases placed per adviser rose to 96 in the first quarter of the year, up from 89 in Q4 2025. IMLA attributed the increase largely to the onset of the Iran conflict in late February, which caused significant swap rate volatility and led economists to revise down forecasts for Bank Rate reductions. Many borrowers responded by bringing forward remortgaging and purchase plans.
Intermediary confidence recovered modestly at the quarterly level compared with Q4 2025, though the month-by-month picture was more mixed. Sentiment improved between January and February before declining in March as the Iran conflict developed, with the steepest fall recorded in confidence about the wider mortgage industry outlook.
Confidence in advisers' own businesses proved the most resilient of the three measures tracked, recording a net score of 95. Confidence in the intermediary sector stood at 82, while confidence in the broader mortgage industry came in at 79. All three measures remain marginally below pre-COVID norms.
Business flow data pointed to some softening in pipeline efficiency relative to the Q4 2025 peak. The proportion of Decisions in Principle (DIP) resulting in a DIP acceptance eased to 83% from the three-year high of 86% recorded in Q4, returning to the longer-run average. The DIP-accept-to-full-application conversion rate held at 73% for the fourth consecutive quarter.
"The striking feature of Q1 2026 is how much of the activity was driven by external shock rather than underlying market momentum," said Kate Davies (pictured right), executive director of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association.
"The Iran conflict and the swap rate volatility it triggered appears to have pulled a significant volume of mortgage business forward into the first quarter - business that might otherwise have been spread more evenly through the year. Intermediaries responded with their customary professionalism and efficiency, supporting borrowers through a period of genuine uncertainty.
"While overall conversion rates have eased from the strong Q4 2025 levels, they remain within a reasonable range, and the stability of the DIP-to-full-application rate across four consecutive quarters is a reassuring signal of underlying process quality across the sector.
Davies pointed to lenders' willingness to revisit affordability criteria following the FCA's guidance changes as "a quiet but meaningful tailwind," and one she expected to continue supporting volumes through the rest of 2026.
"Intermediaries will, as ever, be at the centre of helping borrowers navigate a complex and fast-moving market," she added.
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