Lenders cut fixed rates as millions of borrowers prepare to refinance amid a surge in maturing deals
Market analysis from Barclays indicates that from July to December 2026, residential mortgages worth £154.5 billion – a 5.1% increase from 2025 – will reach the end of their term. Additionally, buy-to-let agreements valued at £23.3 billion are also set to mature during this period, bringing the combined total to £177.8 billion.
The data, drawn from the CACI Mortgage Market Database as at March 2026, shows that maturities are heavily weighted towards the final quarter of the year. Residential mortgage maturities peak in December at £38 billion, followed by October at £29.4 billion. The lowest monthly figure falls in November, at £16.2 billion.
On the buy-to-let side, July records the highest volume of maturing agreements at £4.8 billion, with August the quietest month at £2.8 billion. The remaining months range between £3.7 billion and £4.1 billion.
Geographically, London accounts for the largest share of maturing residential deals at £33.6 billion, followed by the South East at £31.1 billion and the East of England at £18.5 billion. Scotland accounts for £9 billion in residential maturities, while Northern Ireland's figure of £2 billion is noted as likely to be understated, as some lenders operating solely in that market are not captured in the dataset.
For buy-to-let, London again leads with £9.2 billion in maturing agreements, followed by the South East at £3.9 billion and the East of England at £2.3 billion.
The scale of upcoming maturities comes as several major lenders have moved to reduce their fixed rates. "Some of the UK's biggest mortgage lenders have reduced their fixed rates over the last few days, giving homebuyers and remortgage customers a welcome boost after a volatile few months for pricing," said Aaron Strutt (pictured right), product director at Trinity Financial. "Halifax, Lloyds, Coventry Building Society, Barclays and NatWest are among the lenders to have made changes, with banks and building societies trying to attract more borrowers as the housing market remains subdued in many areas.
"Mortgage rates rose earlier in the year as funding costs increased, but the latest round of reductions suggests lenders are now prepared to compete much more aggressively for new business. Barclays has some market leading two-year fixes from 4.39% for those with a 40% deposit and it has a 3.96% two-year tracker rate. Nationwide has a 4.44% five-year fix, while Lloyds, First Direct and HSBC also have five year fixes just below 4.5%. If you have a larger deposit then there are some good deals to choose from at the moment."
"Huge numbers of homeowners are due to renew their mortgage rates over the coming months and many of them will have been panicking because rates were higher than expected. Thankfully, many fixed and tracker rates are looking much more competitively priced so the payment shock will not be as big as many have been expecting.
Strutt urged borrowers not to accept their existing lender's renewal offer without first checking whether a better rate is available elsewhere. "The lenders are fighting to top the best buy tables, so rather than simply locking into the rate you are offered to stick with your mortgage provider, compare the market for a cheaper deal," he said. "This is important if you have a larger mortgage, you want to borrow additional funds for home improvements, or your lender is not offering a no early repayment charges product when you need flexibility."
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