Bank signals rates may have peaked

The minutes showed that despite the increase in inflation most members did not feel an increase was needed.

Predictions for the future course of rates varied with some analysts predicting at least one more increase this year, while others felt that rates had clearly peaked.

Ray Boulger, senior technical director at Charcol, said he believed the MPC would not be overly concerned by the recent rise in inflation because it was heavily linked to oil prices, which were beginning to fall.

“I think that rates will stay steady until the second half of the year when we could see a quarter per cent drop,” he said.

Simon Rubinshn, chief economist at investment firm Gerrard, commented: “Nothing leads us to change our mind that the MPC will sit tight when it meets again in May.

As we have argued previously, a further tightening in policy will require some evidence of a rebound in consumer activity.

“There is precious little sign of this at the present time whether one looks at statements from retailers, the official spending figures or the lending data.”

However, John Wrigles-worth, economist at the Wriglesworth Consultancy, said he believed rates could rise immediately following the election.

“The first MPC meeting after the election could see another 0.25 per cent rise, after which we should see further stability,” he commented.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that gross lending in March totalled £20.1 billion, up 13 per cent from £17.8 billion in February.

However, this was still 19 per cent lower than at the same time last year. In the first quarter of 2005, lending dropped by 16 per cent to £55.3 billion, from £66 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004.