Monthly dip modest but affordability pressures and geopolitical uncertainty still cloud outlook
Residential property transactions fell 3% month-on-month in April, from 103,910 in March to 101,030, according to figures released by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) on Friday.
On an annual basis, seasonally adjusted transactions were 53% higher than a year ago, with the HMRC attributing the scale of that increase to an unusually depressed base: activity dropped sharply in April 2025 after transactions were pulled forward into March 2025 ahead of changes to stamp duty land tax (SDLT) thresholds, leaving fewer completions in the following month.
Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions fell 16% between March and April 2026.
In the non-residential sector, seasonally adjusted transactions declined 6% month-on-month and were 1% higher year-on-year. Non-seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions fell 20% relative to March.
"While it is disappointing to see the volume of non-seasonally adjusted housing transactions display negativity month-on-month, when viewing the wider picture year-on-year, they show a return to more expected numbers, all following changes to thresholds to Stamp Duty at the start of April 2025," said Nathan Emerson (pictured right), chief executive of industry body Propertymark.
"Sentiment within the housing sector remains a central indicator of economic health. With global unease continuing to add potential unforeseen pressures for many people, it is important to apply a sense of caution regarding affordability over the coming weeks and months.
"We have recently witnessed Ofgem raise the energy price cap by 13%, effective from July. This, coupled with what is a generally changeable direction for both inflation and base rate, could add up to producing a challenging period ahead."
Mark Harris (pictured right), chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, also pointed to geopolitical pressures as a factor weighing on market activity.
"The war in the Middle East is leading to higher inflation and weaker growth, which is bound to impact housing market activity, although these figures show transaction numbers dipped by a relatively small number month-on-month," Harris said.
"While the Bank of England is expected to hold base rate again next month, mortgage lenders continue to trim their rates in light of improving funding condition, with Barclays the latest major lender to lower rates on a range of products.
"However, swap rate volatility suggests borrowers should not take such reductions for granted, as the situation can quickly change on the back of wider geopolitical events. Borrowers should secure a rate at the earliest opportunity for peace of mind, and can always switch to a cheaper rate when they complete if pricing has fallen by that time."
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