Fewer Kiwis leaving for Australia, but ASB warns broader migration trend is weakening
New Zealand's net migration loss to Australia eased to 28,500 in the year to December 2025, down from 31,100 in 2024, according to Stats NZ.
The smaller loss reflected a modest lift in arrivals from Australia rather than fewer people leaving, with departures holding broadly steady at 47,500 while arrivals rose to 19,000 from 16,800.
“The smaller net migration loss in 2025 was due to slightly more arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, while departures from New Zealand to Australia were similar in number," said Dave O'Donovan, Stats NZ international migration statistics spokesperson, in a media release.
ASB's latest migration note, covering more recent data to May 2026, found net migration remains positive but well below historical norms, prompting the bank to downgrade its 2026 outlook.
“Persistent and strong downward revisions are now harder to ignore in the underlying trend," ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa said, pointing to net migration running at roughly 25,100 on a three-month annualised basis, against a long-term average closer to 45,000.
Kiwi departures slow, but so does migration overall
The trans-Tasman exodus that dominated headlines in recent years continues to ease. NZ citizen departures were down 0.6% in the year to May 2026, though annual outflows remain elevated at around 63,000.
ASB expects this "Kiwi flight" to keep moderating as employment conditions between the two countries converge, noting Australia's economy is "performing at capacity" while the RBA maintains relatively tighter policy.
Non-NZ arrivals, however, tell a more complicated story. While arrivals from Asia remain a source of strength — Chinese arrivals grew 2.9% annually — ASB flagged that "material and persistent" downward revisions to arrival figures have eroded the underlying strength of the numbers, leading the bank to trim its migration forecasts below the Reserve Bank's own May projections.
What softer migration means for housing demand
For advisers, weaker migration flows carry direct implications for rental demand and property investors. As flagged in the Record of Meeting from the Reserve Bank's July Monetary Policy Review, assistant governor Karen Silk noted that "slower-than-expected net immigration could weigh on activity, rental inflation, and house prices."
ASB expects the RBNZ to keep tightening regardless, pencilling in 25 basis point hikes from September, October, and December as the central bank works to return the OCR to a neutral setting near 3.25%.
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