Fewer Kiwis leaving and more arrivals point to renewed pressure on rents and property demand
New Zealand's migration and tourism recovery is gaining momentum, and for mortgage brokers, the numbers carry a clear message: population pressure on housing is building again.
Net migration reached 24,200 in the March 2026 year — up sharply from 14,000 in the year to March 2025.
"Net migration was up in the March 2026 year compared with the previous year, mainly due to fewer people departing long term, although arrivals rose slightly," Stats NZ international migration statistics spokesperson Bryan Downes (pictured left) said.
The turnaround is being driven by a meaningful slowdown in the so-called "Kiwi flight" — the wave of New Zealanders who left in large numbers from 2022 onwards — combined with steady growth in non-New Zealand arrivals, particularly from China, India, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
Kiwi flight fading, but not over
ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa (pictured right), in the bank's latest migration note, says the peak of Kiwi flight appears to have passed. NZ citizen departures have declined steadily since May 2025, though at around 111,000 in the March 2026 year, they remain well above pre-COVID averages of roughly 95,000. Working-age net migration is also improving faster than the Reserve Bank anticipated in its February forecasts — a development that will inform RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement and the pace of its OCR normalisation path.
The implications for the housing market cut both ways. Stronger labour supply from higher net immigration can dampen wage growth and ease non-tradables inflation — a disinflationary signal for mortgage rates. But a faster migration recovery can also pressure rents and demand, potentially closing excess economic capacity sooner than expected.
ASB notes it is still too early to see evidence of either of these drivers dominating, but the balance will have important consequences for the medium-term interest rate outlook and borrowing capacity.
Tourism approaching pre-COVID levels
Alongside the migration data, visitor arrivals jumped 15% in March 2026 to 358,900 — reaching 95% of March 2019 levels and the strongest monthly result since before the pandemic.
For the full March 2026 year, 3.63 million short-term visitors arrived — up more than 300,000 on the prior year — with Australians and Chinese tourists accounting for around two-thirds of that increase, which represented approximately 92% of pre-COVID annual peaks. Stats NZ noted that US visitor arrivals reached a record high for a March month, while Chinese arrivals continued to rebound following eased travel restrictions.
The Middle East conflict casts some uncertainty over whether tourism momentum can hold, given higher fuel costs and travel disruption. That uncertainty aside, a weaker New Zealand dollar may help sustain visitor spending despite higher travel costs.
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