National asking prices firm as Deep South affordability draws buyers south
New Zealand's property market is splitting along increasingly different lines depending on where — and what — buyers are looking at, according to Trade Me Property's latest data.
Auckland City's average asking price rose more than 6% year-on-year to $1,120,650, but the headline figure masks a sharp divide: apartments jumped 26% as first-home buyers and investors chase affordable footholds, while the city's largest homes, those with five or more bedrooms, fell close to 9% over the same period.
Deep South leads a broad-based lift
That same affordability dynamic is playing out at a regional level. The national average asking price rose 1.7% year-on-year to $821,300 in July, the second-strongest annual increase in more than a year, driven largely by the lower South Island. Southland recorded the sharpest annual rise nationally, up 9.7% to $529,000, while Otago followed with a 6.6% increase to $924,650. In the North Island, Hawke's Bay led the way with a 6% rise to $742,750.
Trade Me property customer director Gavin Lloyd (pictured) pointed to affordability as the key driver.
"What we're seeing is a recovery without a boom. Prices have been steadily building momentum since the start of the year, but they're still more than 5 per cent below their 2021 peak, so buyers who felt locked out at the top of the market are re-entering on much better terms," Lloyd said.
He said the monthly figures told a different story to the annual trend.
"Looking at movement from June, the national average remained virtually flat, down just 0.2%. It's a classic winter market, sellers are holding off for spring and buyers are in no rush. That lack of urgency is keeping a lid on prices month-to-month, but the annual trend is clearly pointing up. Spring will be the real test," Lloyd said.
Affordability reshaping where buyers look
Southland's average asking price sits around $290,000 below the national figure, helping explain its continued strength alongside Otago and Canterbury. Otago posted growth both month-on-month (+8.5%) and year-on-year (+6.6%), led by Wānaka, Queenstown Lakes, and Dunedin, Otago's strongest-performing areas, while Canterbury held largely flat from June but remained 2.6% ahead of last July.
Lloyd said the five-year picture reinforced the affordability story.
"If we take a five-year view of Southland, Otago, and Canterbury, asking prices have increased between 10% and 16%. Compare this to the likes of Auckland and Wellington, where prices have fallen by roughly the same amount over that same period," he said.
The pattern lines up with REINZ's own figures for the same period, which showed Southland recording the country's strongest annual House Price Index growth at 8.6%, prompting ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa to describe the national divide as increasingly "K-shaped."
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