National prices flat, but South Island outperforms as election looms
New Zealand's housing market remained largely steady in June, according to the latest Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) data, with the national median price broadly unchanged year-on-year at $770,000, up 0.7% on June 2025.
Days to sell improved slightly to 48, one day faster than the same month last year, while June's sales count ranked 23rd of the 35 June results on record — comfortably above the market's weakest years, though sales fell 11.0% compared with May.
REINZ chief executive Lizzy Ryley (pictured) said the headline figures mask considerable regional variation.
"The market continues to show signs of becoming more settled, but there is no single national story," Ryley said. "The New Zealand housing market has become a series of local markets moving at different speeds. Buyers and sellers in one part of the country are having a very different experience from those in another, making the local knowledge of trusted real estate professionals more important than ever."
South Island continues to outperform
Six of the 16 regions recorded annual median price gains, with the South Island again leading. West Coast posted the strongest growth, up 12.9% to $474,350, followed by Canterbury, up 5.2% to $710,000. Southland recorded the country's strongest annual House Price Index growth at 8.6%, ahead of Otago (4.3%) and Canterbury (4.1%). By contrast, Wellington's market stayed subdued, with its median price flat year-on-year at $750,000 and sales down 16.8%.
Bank economists offered a consistent read on the divide.
ASB's Wesley Tanuvasa described the pattern as increasingly "K-shaped," noting Auckland and Wellington prices fell 1.1% and 1.2% respectively over June, with Wellington's annual decline deepening to -4.5%, while ex-Auckland prices were up 0.5% annually.
"The housing market is continuing to look K-shaped, and we retain our view that it will, in aggregate, remain relatively dormant over 2026," Tanuvasa said.
Westpac NZ's Michael Gordon reached a similar conclusion, noting the REINZ House Price Index fell 0.3% for the month and 0.8% annually, with prices "more or less sideways for the last three years, though with some marked distinctions across regions" — Wellington and Auckland seeing the largest declines, while "regions with stronger links to agriculture and tourism such as Canterbury and Otago have seen prices continue to set new highs."
Election and rate uncertainty shaping buyer behaviour
Ryley said a possible July official cash rate increase, ongoing cost-of-living pressures, and the approaching general election all weighed on sentiment during June, with some buyers bringing forward purchasing decisions ahead of the OCR announcement while others adopted a more cautious approach.
That uncertainty has since been resolved — the RBNZ lifted the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 8 July, its first hike in three years, with most bank economists expecting the rate to reach around 3.00% by year-end.
REINZ's regional commentary echoed the election theme repeatedly, with agents in multiple regions — including Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury, and Otago — describing a "wait and see" approach among buyers and vendors ahead of November's vote.
Looking ahead, Ryley said conditions are likely to remain broadly stable through winter.
"Our members are telling us that buyers remain engaged, but they're taking their time, doing their research and making well-informed decisions," she said. "That's why local knowledge continues to matter. Understanding what's happening in your own community and working with a local real estate professional who understands those conditions, has never been more important."
For property investors, Tanuvasa flagged a longer-term consideration: urban rental yields remain relatively low despite soft price growth, but improving migration flows — particularly younger arrivals settling first in urban hubs — could tighten rental markets from 2027.
"Relative Aussie-NZ housing market affordability/(profitability) differences are tentatively beginning to favour investing here rather than over the ditch," Tanuvasa said, though he cautioned this remains "a 2027 story" rather than an immediate shift.
For more insights, read the Westpac and ASB commentaries on the latest REINZ results.
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