New data reveals which NZ regions have become harder — and easier — to buy in
When advisers talk about housing affordability, the conversation usually defaults to Auckland or Queenstown. New Stuff analysis of Cotality and Infometrics data suggests that framing misses a more revealing picture — how much harder or easier it has become to buy in the place where people already live and earn.
By that measure, the biggest affordability shift in New Zealand over the past 22 years has not happened in Queenstown but in the Mackenzie District. The average household buying the average home there today would spend 51% of its income on mortgage payments — 26% above the region's own long-run average since 2004. Local incomes have not kept pace with what homes now cost.
Kelvin Davidson (pictured), Cotality's chief property economist, pointed to a pattern familiar from other lifestyle and tourism-driven markets.
"McKenzie's [sic] income has lagged over time, it's in the bottom 10 areas for income growth over time," Davidson said. "So, a bit like Queenstown and Coromandel, people coming in with outside wealth make it harder for locals to buy. The area is popular for holiday homes in places like Twizel and Tekapo, so that's pushed house prices up at the same time local incomes have lagged."
Queenstown, Gore and Invercargill also harder to buy
Queenstown Lakes is 19% less affordable today relative to its own two-decade average, driven by sustained wealth inflows and tourism. Gore and Invercargill are 16% less affordable than their own long-run norm — though in absolute terms Invercargill buyers still spend just 28% of income on a mortgage, well below Auckland's 47%.
Davidson cautioned against reading any single metric in isolation.
"Affordability is absolute, but also relative, and you've got to look at a lot of ways. Relative to other parts of the country, relative to its own history, relative to what people might think is reasonable or not reasonable," he said.
For advisers with clients considering lifestyle or regional moves, the gap between where they currently earn and where they plan to buy is now as important as the purchase price itself.
Wairoa, Kaipara, and Marlborough moving in the other direction
Not all regions have moved in the same direction. Wairoa in northern Hawke's Bay is 29% more affordable now than its long-run average — income growth has outpaced house price rises, making it one of the most accessible markets in the country.
Kaipara and Marlborough are both 18% more affordable than their historical norm, while the Far North is 15% more affordable. Davidson attributed the improvement to income growth outpacing national trends in these markets.
In absolute terms, Wairoa, Rangitikei, and Clutha are the most affordable regions right now, with the average household spending around 25% of income on mortgage payments. The national average sits at 40%, while Auckland buyers would need to spend 47%.
One finding that may surprise advisers: Wellington is now slightly more affordable than Christchurch — 34% of household income needed for a mortgage versus 38% in Christchurch. Wellington clients who have been weighing up their options may find their market is now cheaper to service than many expect.
A client moving from Auckland to Invercargill is not just changing their address; they are moving from a 47% mortgage-to-income ratio to a 28% one. The broader timing matters too — government data shows the affordability gains of 2025 are already slowing, with rising rates expected before the end of 2026 likely to reverse some of the improvement seen across both national and regional markets.
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