Falling prices and rising fixed rates are complicating the buy-or-wait call for Ontario buyers
Ontario's benchmark home price declined 3.6% year over year in August, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), drawing renewed attention to a question mortgage brokers across the province have been fielding all year: is now the time to buy, or does waiting still make sense?
For Leah Zlatkin, licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert, the softer price environment tells only part of the story.
Fixed mortgage rates have moved higher in recent weeks, pushed upward by bond yields that have climbed since the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2, flagging stronger upside risks to inflation.
The lowest rates Zlatkin is currently seeing run approximately 4.24% for a three-year fixed and 4.39% for a five-year fixed on uninsured mortgages, with insured equivalents at 4.24% and 4.29% respectively.
Those rates are accessible primarily through lesser-known lenders; the majority of lenders in the market are priced closer to 5%.
"Buyer confidence is shaky right now," Zlatkin said.
"There's a lot of uncertainty around the economy, the cost of living and what comes next, and that's making people more cautious about making a major purchase."
The timing question no one can answer
The broader context reinforces Zlatkin's read on the market. Jason Mercer, Chief Information Officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), noted in the board's August Market Watch that while housing has remained relatively accessible compared to recent years, "the main hold-back for many households has been concerns around trade with the United States and the potential for higher inflation and borrowing costs in the future."
GTA home sales plunged amid ongoing buyer uncertainty in 2025, and the hesitancy has continued to shape the market into 2026.
Zlatkin says the right course of action depends almost entirely on the buyer's personal circumstances — not market conditions alone.
"What I'm seeing is that buyers who have the flexibility to stay where they are more likely to hold off, while those entering the market often have a reason they need to move because of a change in their circumstances," she said.
For buyers facing a lease expiry, a family change, or a job move, the calculus is different.
"For someone who needs to move, the decision becomes less about waiting for greater certainty and more about whether they're financially prepared to make that move," Zlatkin said.
Analysis of why buyer nervousness — not rates — is holding back Canada's housing recovery has shown that the search for certainty can stall decision-making beyond what market conditions alone would justify.
Zlatkin is direct on this point. "If the decision to wait depends on getting a lower home price or mortgage rate later, it relies on an outcome that can't be predicted," she said. "Conditions can change quickly, so buyers need to consider whether the numbers work based on what they know today."
Robert Kavcic of BMO Capital Markets says August marked the end of the market's recent streak of modest gains, with sales weakening and higher bond yields continuing to put pressure on mortgage rates.https://t.co/N4GXfWA0eK
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 16, 2026
The financial buffer buyers often underestimate
Even for those who have resolved to proceed, Zlatkin highlights a factor she sees routinely overlooked: what cash remains after the purchase closes.
"The reality is that a lot of buyers are putting almost every dollar they have into buying a home," she said.
"Having three to six months set aside isn't realistic for everyone, but buyers need to understand how much room they'll have if their income changes or an unexpected expense comes up."
Her recommendation is to look beyond what a buyer qualifies for and model the full post-purchase picture — factoring in property taxes, maintenance, and ongoing household costs.
Brokers warning clients that waiting for lower mortgage rates is costing them have made a parallel case: the financial consequences of delay are rarely accounted for in full, while the costs of being under-capitalised after a purchase are immediate.
Robert Hogue, senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Economics), has previously stated that "only price drops in certain markets and sustained household income growth can be counted on to lighten the ownership cost load."
For Zlatkin, the question of timing ultimately returns to the individual.
"There's never going to be a point where buyers know exactly what home prices, mortgage rates or the economy will do next," she said.
"The decision has to come back to whether buying makes sense for their circumstances and whether they're financially comfortable taking it on."
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