April's modest sales uptick masks a market still waiting on rates, listings, and global clarity
Canadian home sales nudged higher in April, offering a flicker of spring optimism to a market that has spent much of 2026 searching for footing. Yet the numbers tell a story of fragile momentum rather than a decisive turn.
The number of homes recorded over Canadian MLS Systems rose 0.7% on a month-over-month basis in April 2026, though actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 4% below April 2025.
The MLS Home Price Index edged down 0.1% month-over-month and was down 4.2% year-over-year. That's the smallest annual decline recorded so far in 2026.
The national average sale price landed at $695,412, up 2.2% from the same month last year, though economists caution that average prices are sensitive to the mix of sales activity by region and property type.
"While home sales were up only modestly from March to April, the small increase reflected a slow start to the month with a stronger handoff into May, alongside falling days on market and stabilizing prices," said Shaun Cathcart, Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)'s senior economist.
"This latest bout of global economic uncertainty and higher mortgage rates means the previously expected rebound in housing markets this year will continue to be muted, but it does not mean there will be no upward momentum at all."
CREA has cut its full-year forecast, now expecting national home sales to rise just 1% in 2026 to roughly 475,000 transactions — down from the 5.1% growth projected in January.
The national average price is forecast to climb 1.5% to approximately $689,000. Cathcart has pointed to the Middle East conflict and the resulting oil shock as key drivers of the revision, with buyers watching how geopolitical turmoil filters through to global growth and borrowing costs.
Spring listings rise, but buyer hesitation lingers
New listings jumped 4.1% month-over-month in April, marking the traditional starting point for the spring market.
With new supply outpacing sales, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 45.6% from 47.1% in March, still below the long-term average of 54.8%, though within the broadly balanced range of 45% to 65%.
There were 187,647 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of April, up 2.2% from a year earlier but still 6.1% below the long-term average for that time of year.
Months of inventory on a national basis stood at 5.2 — very close to the long-term average of five months — up slightly from February and March due to the influx of new spring listings.
Read more: Not good, and getting worse: Canada’s homebuilding crisis deepens
CREA chair Garry Bhaura offered a measured but constructive read on the figures.
"While many buyers remain in a wait and see mode, the April national housing numbers did move in the right direction across the board," he said.
"With the spring listings now coming onto the market, sales were up, days on market were down, and prices continued to stabilize. The data trends suggest more of the same for May."
Price stabilisation is described by CREA as an important milestone necessary for buyers to eventually start re-entering the market in larger numbers — and the April HPI decline of just 0.1% was the smallest recorded since October 2025, aligning with sale-to-list price ratios that have been tightening and days on market that have been edging lower in recent months.
Regional divide sharpens as brokers navigate uncertainty
Regionally, prices remain down on a year-over-year basis in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, offsetting gains in other provinces. That divergence is something brokers on the ground know well.
Dustan Woodhouse of Be The Better Broker described the market in places like Edmonton and Winnipeg as reminiscent of the early 2010s — accessible and active — while in Vancouver and Toronto, "normal people don't buy real estate anymore."
Woodhouse said that in the GTA and Greater Vancouver Area, brokers' role in helping new buyers has become "very compromised," with ownership in those cities increasingly dependent on dual high incomes or substantial family support.
Read more: Vancouver home sales slide, but real estate board sees a silver lining
In British Columbia, the provincial real estate association anticipates the average price will fall 1.4% in 2026 to $939,800, with active listings at their highest level since 2015 and additional pressure from elevated new-home inventory.
BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson noted that improved affordability in many markets, combined with years of pent-up demand, creates conditions for a rebound — though households will likely need a prolonged period of stability to re-enter the market.
In Ontario, the condo market tells an even more stark story. The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area recorded just 246 new condo sales in the first quarter of 2026. That's a 35-year low and 52% below the same period last year. No new project launched during the quarter, a first in at least three decades.
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