Canadians haven’t given up on homeownership, and the data seems to prove it
Economic uncertainty, affordability challenges, and interest rate volatility have roiled Canada's real estate market over the past several years – but as Canadians continue to show faith in the value of homebuying, a top Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) executive sees "green shoots" emerging in the housing outlook.
Janet Boyle (pictured top), RBC's senior vice president of home equity finance, told Canadian Mortgage Professional that the backdrop for a gradual market recovery may soon be in place, with recent polling by the company showing intentions to purchase remain strong even despite the turbulence of recent times.
In RBC's spring home ownership poll, 32% of respondents said they expect to purchase a house or condo within the next two years – and 62% of that cohort say they feel closer to that dream than before.
Renewal wave becoming a launchpad
Even amid a much-publicised mortgage renewal wave, that survey also showed two of every five Canadians whose mortgage is up for renewal in the next two years expect to purchase another property within that timeline.
"I like to call these the green shoots," Boyle said. "Rather than people saying, 'I'm just going to renew and stay put,' they're actually using this renewal to think about: 'Do I need more space? Am I growing my family? Am I interested in investing in a second property?' And that renewal is really the launchpad for consideration."
New figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), meanwhile, show a degree of resilience in the current market even with activity still sluggish by historical standards. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) recorded a 7% year-over-year increase in home sales in April, according to TRREB, marking a second successive month of annual gains.
A tentative market recovery is still not underway, with consumer sentiment remaining low as tariff tensions continue to weigh down Canada's economic and housing outlooks.
Boyle acknowledged the weight of that uncertainty. Coming into 2025, she said, there had been genuine optimism, only for the tariff announcements of January that year to knock confidence sharply.
"I think last year we really saw that reflected in real estate market activity, that it wasn't the year that we had hoped it would be," she said. "And certainly I think for both buyers and sellers, it didn't really come to fruition."
Read more: Why mortgage renewals in 2026 might not be the crisis once feared
Canadians 'have not abandoned that dream'
But the fact that Canadians in general seem to be absorbing the shock of the mortgage renewal wave – which some feared would be a cliff – offers a further indication of the market's overall resilience.
And RBC's broader polling adds further cause for cautious confidence. Some 67% of Canadians say they have always dreamed of buying a home, while 80% still regard homeownership as one of the biggest financial milestones of their lives.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, when interest rates were at rock-bottom lows, many buyers surged into the market for fear of missing out. Now, Boyle said that mindset has been replaced by a more deliberate approach to timing.
"It's more focused on making the right move at the right time," she said. "While I would still say Canadians are still being cautious, the real proof point is that they have not abandoned that dream of homeownership."
Not all of the data is encouraging. The same polling found that 39% of homeowners are worried about making the wrong decision at renewal, rising to 58% among those renewing within the next two years. Boyle said the most common mistake is borrowers waiting too long to begin the conversation – and arriving without a clear picture of their cash flow, other obligations, or priorities for the next term.
"The single biggest piece of advice I give to people is start that conversation early and don't be shy about it," she said. "Be very transparent about exactly what your situation is, because there are so many ways that banks and lenders can help support those situations once we have all the information about the client and what they're looking to do."
Read more: Is Canada's mortgage renewal crisis settling down?
Despite the challenges, Boyle said she is cautiously optimistic about the second half of 2026, pointing to improving rate conditions and a gradual return of first-time buyers.
"I think buyers and homeowners are very resilient," she said. "I think Canadians are very resilient. And I would just say, encouraging people to do their research, continue to hold tight on the dream of homeownership."
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