New data reveals why falling rents are not translating to financial relief for all Canadians
Falling rents have done little to resolve Canada's affordability problem for renters outside the country's largest cities, with a new report finding that income growth, not rental price, now determines who can comfortably afford housing.
The Rent Cheque: 2026 Rental Intelligence Report by SingleKey, a Toronto-based rental risk intelligence platform, analyzed thousands of rental applications across Canada from April 1 to June 30.
Its findings challenge the assumption that lower rents automatically translate to financial relief for renters from coast to coast.
Nationally, average rents declined 2.1% year-over-year to $2,051, with renters allocating 28.1% of household income to housing costs.
Canada's two most expensive markets recorded the sharpest declines. Vancouver rents fell 6% to an average of $2,833, while Toronto rents dropped 5% to $2,623.
Despite their higher sticker prices, renters in both cities dedicated a smaller share of their earnings to housing than the national average — 27.7% in Vancouver and 27.4% in Toronto — buoyed by household incomes that remain well above the national figure.
"As rent prices have gone down in the past year, you'd expect that this would have solved the financial pressure for renters, but rent price is only half of the equation," said Viler Lika, founder and chief executive officer of SingleKey.
"In Barrie and Winnipeg, we're seeing firsthand that if income doesn't hold up, cheaper rent doesn't make a large enough impact to improve the financial health of renters."
| City | Avg. monthly rent | YOY change | Rent-to-income | Avg. household income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver BC | $2,833 | ▼ 6.0% | 27.7% | $154,162 |
| Toronto ON | $2,623 | ▼ 5.0% | 27.4% | $149,607 |
| Halifax NS | $2,206 | ▲ 5.5% | — | — |
| Calgary AB | $1,997 | ▼ 2.8% | — | $120,566 |
| Winnipeg MB | $1,572 | ▼ 8.9% | ~30% | $78,607 |
| Montreal QC | $1,545 | ▼ 8.8% | — | — |
| National average | $2,051 | ▼ 2.1% | 28.1% | — |
▼ Rent down year-over-year | ▲ Rent up year-over-year | Source: SingleKey, The Rent Cheque: 2026 Rental Intelligence Report
Secondary markets bearing the brunt
The report identified five centres where income has not kept pace with rent reductions: Barrie, Ont., Medicine Hat, Alta., Greater Sudbury, Ont., Winnipeg, Man., and Kelowna, B.C.
Renters in each city contribute more than the national average of household income to rent, while household earnings in those markets declined between 6% and 21.5% over the study period.
That divergence carries direct implications for mortgage brokers, who increasingly counsel clients weighing the rent-versus-own decision. The SingleKey data reinforces what prior reporting on Canada's rental affordability challenges for brokers and borrowers has documented: even as headline rental figures soften, structural pressures are spreading to markets previously insulated from the affordability crunch.
Kevin Hughes, deputy chief economist at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) in Ottawa, observed earlier this year that supply improvements have left some markets "a little bit less tight," while conceding that structural relief remains elusive.
As affordability pressures migrate from gateway cities to secondary markets, the pool of renters with meaningful savings capacity, and a realistic path out of the rental market, continues to narrow.
The good and bad news facing first-time buyers in Canada's 2026 housing market has consistently centred on income, and the SingleKey data reinforces that framing at the rental level.
Co-renting, debt collections, and a more complex risk picture
SingleKey's data also illuminates how Canadians are managing costs. Single renters allocate an average of 40% of after-tax income to rent, well above both the 28.1% national household average and the Government of Canada's recommended threshold of 35%.
The gap is partly explained by co-renting arrangements. The national average household income of $113,970 sits notably higher than the personal income average of $72,950, a spread reflecting widespread reliance on shared living arrangements.
"Whether renters are a dual-income family, roommates, or co-signers, sharing housing costs can be a differentiator for many renters struggling to keep pace with payments," Lika said.
The report's risk signals complicate the picture further. National debt collections rose 18.4% year-over-year, even as rents declined.
Some markets with above-average credit scores are not insulated: Victoria and Thunder Bay carry average credit scores of 693 and 709, respectively, yet collections surged 171.6% and 150.5% year-over-year.
Medicine Hat, Alta., stands out as the report's highest-risk market, combining a credit score of 656 with a collections rate of 24.1% and a bankruptcy rate of 6.1%.
Toronto, despite its reputation as Canada's most expensive rental city, registers as comparatively low-risk — average credit score of 742, collections at 5%, bankruptcies at 1%.
Lika cautioned against relying on any single indicator.
"The data suggests that one figure alone, like credit scores, doesn't reflect all the challenges a renter may be facing, or beginning to face as other affordability factors like inflation, tariffs, and employment levels continue to set in," he said.
"The takeaway is that as Canadians continue to be impacted, various financial indicators need to be taken into account to get an accurate picture."
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