Softer home sales are handing buyers leverage in more markets – but not everywhere in Canada
Canada's housing market is tilting toward buyers in more communities this fall, giving mortgage brokers more room to structure purchases as resale activity cools, according to the REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook.
REMAX brokers and agents reported year-over-year sales declines in 81% of local markets analyzed between January 1 and July 31. About 32% of those markets are expected to sit firmly in buyers' territory this season, more than double last year's 15.2%, while 25% should still favour sellers.
REMAX now expects national sales to finish 2026 roughly 2% below 2025 levels.
Average residential prices rose in 56% of markets, with declines clustered in the costliest metros.
REMAX projects the Greater Toronto Area average will close the year at $975,436, down 5.5%, and Greater Vancouver at $1,406,305, down 2.1%.
Smaller centres are moving the other way. St. John's Metro is tracking a 10% gain and Saskatoon 6%, while limited inventory lifted Thunder Bay prices 10.5% through July.
Every Atlantic market analyzed posted price gains over that period, even as sales fell across the region.
"The market has not become easy for buyers, but in many regions, it is allowing for a more deliberate purchasing process," said Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada.
That reading follows the August dip in Canadian home sales reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), when senior economist Shaun Cathcart said, "Sales activity and price trends were largely unchanged for a fourth consecutive month in August."
How buyers' market conditions are reshaping broker conversations
Brokers and lenders at the two-day MortgageFest Canada 2026 event in Toronto described the shift from the front lines.
"Conditions of finance are back in. Home inspections, everything, you name it. Water testing. We have price reductions," said Sarita Free, a mortgage agent with Mortgage Powered Financial Group in Norfolk County, Ontario.
Grant Armstrong, chief growth officer at WealthOne Bank of Canada, said brokers who diversified are still finding business.
"A lot of people are like, oh, the market's slow. No – purchase transactions are slow in some areas. But refinancing, switching, consolidating, improvements, investor opportunities are there."
Where buyers have the upper hand: REMAX year-end 2026 price outlook by market
Estimated year-end 2026 average residential price, change from 2025 and expected market type
| Market | Avg. price estimate | Change | Market type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Canada | |||
| Greater Vancouver Area, BC | $1,406,305 | −2.1% | Buyer’s |
| Kelowna, BC | $734,656 | 0.0% | Buyer’s |
| Calgary, AB | $543,875 | −5.0% | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Edmonton, AB | $484,768 | +2.0% | Balanced |
| Saskatoon, SK | $479,431 | +6.0% | Seller’s |
| Winnipeg, MB | $488,048 | +1.0% | Balanced |
| Ontario | |||
| Windsor, ON | $564,329 | −2.0% | Balanced |
| Grand Bend, ON | $1,048,643 | +8.0% | Buyer’s |
| London, ON | $590,946 | −2.0% | Balanced |
| Kitchener-Waterloo, ON | $702,722 | −5.0% | Buyer’s |
| Oakville, ON | $1,468,811 | +1.0% | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Greater Toronto Area, ON | $975,436 | −5.5% | Buyer’s |
| York Region, ON | $1,020,052 | −3.0% | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Niagara, ON | $597,968 | −6.0% | Buyer’s |
| Kingston, ON | $644,691 | +1.0% | Buyer’s |
| Ottawa, ON | $695,849 | −0.5% | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Sudbury, ON | $530,387 | 0.0% | Seller’s |
| North Bay, ON | $458,879 | −1.7% | Buyer’s |
| Thunder Bay, ON | $424,944 | 0.0% | Seller’s |
| Kenora, ON | $628,261 | 0.0% | Seller’s |
| Atlantic Canada | |||
| Fredericton, NB | $384,304 | +2.0% | Balanced |
| Saint John, NB | $380,393 | +3.0% | Seller’s |
| Moncton, NB | $380,532 | −1.0% | Balanced |
| Charlottetown, PE | $403,500 | −1.5% | Buyer’s |
| Truro/Colchester, NS | $379,172 | +1.0% | Balanced |
| Halifax, NS | $604,772 | 0.0% | Balanced |
| St. John’s Metro, NL | $463,126 | +10.0% | Seller’s |
Source: REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook, published October 7, 2026. Figures are estimates provided by REMAX brokers and agents based on local market activity from January 1 to July 31, 2026; historical values from CREA or local board statistics.
Is the Canadian housing market close to a bottom?
Jason Geall, chief executive of Peerage Mortgage Capital, pointed to the top end.
"The luxury cottage market was incredibly hot this last year – we're talking $20 to $30 million cottages. If people like that are buying, I think they believe some sort of a bottom has formed," he said.
Andy Kuyper, head of partnerships and secured lending at TransUnion, was more guarded.
"I'd like to be optimistic. I think we're facing the reality that with the geopolitical climate and everything that's happening here, our mortgage industry is probably not ready to rebound."
Regional splits persist. REMAX expects elevated condo inventory to keep that Calgary segment in buyers' territory, consistent with Calgary's widening split between detached and condo sales in September.
Policy is offering limited relief. A Leger survey of 1,532 Canadians for REMAX, conducted July 17 to 19, found 75% know about the federal first-time buyers' GST/HST rebate, yet only 14% said it shaped their own purchase plans.
REMAX brokers said the rebate mostly helps buyers who were already close to purchasing.
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