Falling real estate expectations signal caution for brokers as autumn demand season begins
Canadian consumer confidence has slipped below the neutral mark for the first time in roughly five months, driven by a retreat in expectations for the economy and housing market, according to the latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI).
The index, a composite weekly measure of Canadian economic mood, registered at 49.86 for the four weeks ending September 18, down from 52.81 four weeks earlier.
The last time the measure sat below the neutral 50-point mark was April, when trade-related uncertainty weighed heavily on Canadian sentiment following US President Donald Trump's return to office.
The 2026 average now stands at 51.05, itself below the index's long-run average of 54.68 since 2008, according to Nanos Research Corporation in Ottawa, which conducts the weekly survey for Bloomberg.
A split picture for mortgage brokers
The headline decline masks a widening fault line between how Canadians feel about their circumstances today and what they anticipate in the months ahead.
The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, which captures forward-looking views on the economy and neighbourhood real estate values, fell to 44.82 from 51.61 four weeks earlier. That drop of nearly seven points in a single month is the sharpest decline recorded in that sub-index since the spring trough.
Only 28.09% of respondents expect real estate values in their area to rise over the next six months, down from 38.16% four weeks prior, a retreat of more than 10 percentage points.
Personal finance and job security views held considerably steadier. The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index — which measures responses on personal financial position and employment stability — edged up to 54.90 from 54.02 over the same period, comfortably above neutral.
The data suggests that while Canadians are not panicking about their own balance sheets, anxiety about the broader economy and where the housing market is heading is weighing heavily on forward sentiment.
That split between pocketbook confidence and forward-looking expectations has become a recurring pattern through 2026, with Canadians growing less certain about where the housing market is heading.
For brokers navigating the autumn selling season, the Expectations Index reading is the more telling number. Clients who feel secure in their employment may still delay purchases when confidence in future property values weakens.
The latest data from the BNCCI points to a buyer pool that remains hesitant despite relatively stable personal finances, an environment that calls for careful client communication on the outlook for housing affordability and mortgage market conditions across Canada.
New data from Statistics Canada and CMHC found that 26.1% of mortgage holders were living in unaffordable housing in 2024, while a growing share reported financial difficulties linked to higher mortgage payments and housing costs.https://t.co/gGBQa1oHU6
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 21, 2026
Regional and demographic variation
The national reading conceals meaningful variation across the country. Quebec posted the strongest confidence at 52.38, while British Columbia registered the lowest at 46.36, below the national reading and well off its 12-month high of 52.01.
Ontario, at 49.31, also sat below the neutral threshold. Atlantic Canada came in at 47.65.
By age, Canadians aged 18 to 29 were the most optimistic cohort at 52.63, while the 30-to-39 age bracket — the group most likely to be actively engaged in property purchase decisions — registered at 47.20, one of the weakest readings of any demographic.
Among income bands, the lowest-income group ($0 to $14,999) dropped sharply to 41.74 from 53.74 the prior week.
Households earning $75,000 or more held relatively steady at 51.48. The data suggests the economic mood is increasingly stratified. Homeowners and renters were near-identical at 49.92 and 49.88 respectively, indicating the pessimism on the Expectations side of the index crosses tenure lines.
The sentiment shift arrives at a critical juncture for the Canadian mortgage market, with the Bank of Canada's next rate decision drawing close and brokers watching closely for signals on whether the Bank of Canada's rate policy will shift heading into the final quarter of 2026.
The BNCCI is produced by Nanos Research Corporation using a random dual-frame telephone survey of 1,026 Canadians aged 18 and over, based on a four-week rolling average.
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