Home price optimism trails as brokers brace for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision
Canadian consumer confidence firmed in mid-October, yet Canadians’ outlook for home values, the measure that matters most to mortgage brokers, still sits well below its historical norm.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI) reached 51.68 for the four weeks ending October 16, up from 49.86 a month earlier.
The weekly gauge is compiled from a rolling telephone survey of 1,016 Canadians. It sits above the neutral 50 mark but below its long-run average of 54.66 since 2008.
Almost all of the improvement came from the forward-looking side of the survey.
"The improvement was driven largely by brighter expectations: that sub-index climbed to 48.41 from 44.82. Pocketbook confidence, covering personal finances and job security, was broadly unchanged at 54.94," said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research.
"Even so, overall confidence remains below its long-run average of 54.66, suggesting Canadians are feeling somewhat better, but remain cautious about the economic outlook as the year moves ahead."
What do Canadians expect from home prices?
The Expectations Index combines views on the economy with views on neighbourhood real estate, and the housing component remains soft.
Just 29.10% of respondents expect local home values to rise over the next six months. That is below the 2026 average of 34.28% and the long-run average of 39.76%.
Another 45.65% expect prices to hold, while 19.96% anticipate a decline.
Household finances offer little cushion. Only 11.03% said their personal finances improved over the past year, compared with 37.91% who said they were worse off.
British Columbia was the only region in net-negative territory, at 46.02. Ontario sat just under neutral at 49.91.
A new international research by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) revealed that Canada’s inflation-adjusted home prices more than doubled between 2005 and 2025, rising 101% and outpacing every major peer country.
Fausto Gaudio of IC Savings argues that home prices remain too disconnected from incomes, making it increasingly difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market and highlighting the need for a broader affordability reset. https://t.co/3PehdHgrJn
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 13, 2026
How the confidence data fits the Bank of Canada rate call
Nanos said the Expectations Index has tracked year-over-year GDP growth with a 0.82 correlation on a six-month lag, and that the data has been cited in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report. That makes the reading a timely input one week before the central bank’s October 28 decision. The overnight rate has stood at 2.25% since October 2025.
Most of the bank economists calling for an October 28 rate hold point to September’s inflation data.
Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres Group, addressed those figures amid rising business inflation expectations in the Bank’s latest survey.
“The September data support our base-case scenario that the Bank of Canada will remain on hold at its October 28 meeting,” she said.
Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank of Canada in Montréal, has urged brokers to recommend the five-year fixed over variable. He was direct about the risk of tightening.
“I don’t think that the Bank of Canada should be hiking next week, and if they do hike, they can’t be too aggressive,” he noted.
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