First-home buyers stay strong as relocating owner-occupiers hold back
New Zealand's property sales volumes have declined year-on-year every month so far in 2026, with the annual running total falling from 91,973 deals in December to 89,043 by August, according to Cotality's latest buyer breakdown.
The single biggest contributor to that slide has been movers — relocating owner-occupiers — whose annual deal count dropped from 25,044 to 23,398 over the same period.
The scale of the pullback is echoed in REINZ's own August data, which recorded a 13% year-on-year fall in sales — the sixth-lowest August total in 35 years of records — even as national listings inventory climbed 9.7%.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the pullback isn't about a lack of stock.
"A lack of available listings is clearly not an issue at the moment," Davidson said, pointing instead to broader caution: with unemployment above average and job security diminished, movers are increasingly choosing to stay put rather than trade up or down.
That caution may deepen further: the RBNZ lifted the OCR to 2.75% on 2 September, its second consecutive hike, adding a fresh headwind for owner-occupiers weighing whether to trade up or down in the months ahead.
Davidson doesn't expect a meaningful rebound from this group until economic growth strengthens on a sustained basis, likely not before the second half of next year.
Investors have pulled back, but haven't left
Mortgaged multiple property owners, including "mum and dad" investors, have also eased their activity, though less sharply than movers. Debt-backed investors made close to 20,800 purchases over the past 12 months, with cash buyers adding a further 9,400, despite headwinds including subdued rental growth, rising operating costs, and political uncertainty over a possible capital gains tax in 2027.
A separate adviser survey from mortgages.co.nz and Tony Alexander found a net 27% of advisers reporting fewer investors in the market this month — a trend the report links partly to "reduced capital gain expectations."
Cotality notes that ongoing structural demand for rental accommodation means this group's continued presence in the market matters, even as first-home buyers reduce the pressure on rental supply.
First-home buyers remain a genuine bright spot
First-home buyers have purchased around 24,950 properties over the past year, up sharply from a cyclical low of 14,523 in early 2023, and now account for a record 29% monthly market share as of August.
Cotality attributes the strength to a combination of factors working in this group's favour: softer property values, lower mortgage rates than the recent peak, access to KiwiSaver for part of a deposit, and continued use of banks' low-deposit lending allowances under the RBNZ's LVR settings.
For advisers, the data points to a market shaped less by broad-based weakness and more by one specific group sitting on the sidelines. With first-home buyer demand strong and investor activity easing but not collapsing, the softness in overall volumes is concentrated in movers weighing up whether now is the right time to trade up, trade down, or simply stay where they are.
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