Inflows remain muted, but ASB says uptick should support housing demand
New Zealand’s population growth from migration is picking up again. More migrants are arriving and fewer people are leaving, a combination ASB says should add to demand for housing. Inflows are still well below historical norms, though, and young New Zealanders are leaving in growing numbers.
Stats NZ figures show a net migration gain of 22,600 in the September 2026 year, up 12,700 on the previous year. Migrant arrivals rose 7% to 136,100, while departures fell 3% to 113,500.
Housing support, labour market strain
“Overall, net migration inflows remain relatively muted by historical context,” ASB senior economist Jane Turner (pictured) said in the bank’s latest Quickview. ASB’s figures put the annual gain at about half the 10-year average of 44,000.
Even so, she said the trend is encouraging for domestic demand, including housing.
“The uptick is encouraging from a domestic demand perspective as it will add to demand for retail spending and housing,” Turner said.
That support has yet to show up in prices. Cotality’s Home Value Index recorded a seventh consecutive monthly fall in October, with Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson pointing to elevated stock levels as sales volumes drift lower.
The flip side is the job market. Turner warned that new arrivals could push up an already high unemployment rate in a market where “job creation has underperformed population growth”. Stats NZ figures show unemployment rose to 5.7% in the September quarter, its highest level since 2015.
Departures ease, but young Kiwis keep leaving
The momentum has built through 2026. ASB said seasonally adjusted net migration averaged 2,643 a month over the past three months, up from about 1,630 a month in the March quarter. Annual departures have come down from a peak of around 120,000 in mid-2025, although ASB said they remain elevated.
The gain is still driven by non-citizens. New Zealand recorded a net loss of 37,800 of its own citizens over the year. Those aged 15 to 24 made up the largest net loss of any age group, at 11,500, a loss driven largely by 18- and 19-year-olds.
Visitor arrivals near pre-COVID levels
Tourism is a brighter spot for the wider economy. Stats NZ reported 3.74 million overseas visitor arrivals in the September 2026 year, up 9% on a year earlier.
ASB said visitor numbers are now just 4.2% below pre-COVID peaks. Arrivals from China have recovered to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, up from 60% at the start of the year. With the New Zealand dollar weak, ASB expects tourism spending to lift services exports over the September quarter.
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