Buyers hold the upper hand as national values fall 1.9% over winter
New Zealand's housing market remains firmly in buyers' favour, with the latest QV House Price Index showing residential values dropped 1.9% nationally over the three months to the end of August — the sharpest quarterly fall in two years.
The average home is now worth $894,977, down 1.7% since the start of the year and 1.3% lower than the same time last year.
Cotality's own Home Value Index tells a similar story, recording a fifth consecutive monthly decline in August, with the national median dwelling value down 0.36% for the month and 0.97% over the past year.
Buyers negotiating hard, but no sudden correction
QV national spokesperson Simon Petersen said buyers are firmly in control heading into spring.
"Buyers have plenty of choice, they're taking their sweet time, they're negotiating hard, and they're prepared to walk away if the numbers don't stack up. That's putting downward pressure on property values," Petersen said.
Even so, he characterised the trend as gradual rather than dramatic.
"We'd still characterise it more as a slow deterioration rather than a sudden correction. The market has been flat to gently falling for some time, and those smaller movements are now starting to add up in some parts of the country," Petersen said.
Main centres lead the softening
The weakness was most pronounced in the country's largest cities. Auckland's average value fell 2.7% for the quarter, its steepest decline since August 2024, while Wellington recorded a 3.5% drop, its worst quarterly result since March 2023.
Even Christchurch, one of 2026's more resilient markets, slipped 0.5% — its first negative quarter in 11 months. Gisborne recorded the largest decline of any main urban area, down 5% over the quarter, with Greymouth (-3.7%) and Hastings (-2.9%) also underperforming.
A handful of lower South Island centres bucked the trend, with Queenstown up 1% and Timaru and Invercargill each edging 0.1% higher.
Spring outlook hinges on buyer confidence
Petersen said the coming months would test whether the market can break its holding pattern.
"Spring usually brings more listings and more activity, but not necessarily more competition. If buyer confidence stays where it is, vendors may simply find themselves competing harder for the same pool of cautious purchasers," he said.
He also flagged the Reserve Bank's rate move as a factor for buyers to weigh — the OCR rose 25 basis points to 2.75% on 2 September, after annual inflation hit 4.1% on an oil-price shock tied to the Middle East conflict — alongside broader economic conditions and the approaching election.
"Unless something changes that equation, we could be in for a busier spring market without much upward pressure on prices," Petersen said.
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