South Island values climb while North Island markets keep sliding
Buyers across the North Island are in no hurry, and the latest figures show why: values fell in every main centre in the three months to October, even as much of the South Island kept climbing.
The national average home value dropped 0.9% to $890,508 over the period, according to the QV House Price Index. That’s a smaller fall than September’s 1.5%, but values are still 2.2% below where they started the year.
“At a national level, the housing market is still going backwards – just more slowly now,” said QV national spokesperson Simon Petersen (pictured).
North Island stuck in a holding pattern
Among main centres, Rotorua led the declines at 2.9%, with Wellington and Auckland also down. The average Auckland home is now worth $1,155,065, 3.2% less than a year earlier.
Petersen said the spring lift had done little to shift the balance away from buyers in northern markets.
“Spring brings more listings and more buyers into the market, but more activity doesn’t necessarily translate to stronger prices,” he said.
Separate listings data backs that up, with national housing stock reaching its highest October level since 2014, according to realestate.co.nz. Auckland alone had 15,046 homes for sale, up 14.1% on a year earlier.
In Hamilton, where values fell only 0.4%, QV registered valuer Marshall Wu said first-home buyers were benefiting from improved affordability and choice. But he warned that “the prospect of higher mortgage rates may constrain demand and limit the pace of any near-term recovery”.
South Island pulls ahead
Invercargill values are up 6.3% on a year ago, while Christchurch is 3.8% higher and Queenstown rose 2.6% in the quarter alone. Nelson and Timaru were the only main southern centres to record quarterly falls, each under 1%.
Petersen attributed the gap to stronger local economies and better affordability in southern centres.
Election and rates add to the wait
The October data covers the weeks before the general election, which QV said likely gave already hesitant buyers and sellers another reason to wait.
“The election may now be behind us, but the uncertainty clearly isn’t,” Petersen said.
In his view, how much property is on the market, what it costs to borrow, how confident people feel about their jobs and overall affordability will shape buyer behaviour regardless of who governs. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate (OCR) at 2.75% in late October but signalled that further tightening is likely. Bank economists still expect a December OCR hike, with Westpac forecasting a rise to 3% on 9 December and ASB seeing a peak of 3.5% by March 2027.
Stay informed with the latest housing market trends and mortgage insights — subscribe to our free daily newsletter.
