ASB survey finds rental property confidence slumps as political worry hits record high
A record 40% of New Zealand investors say they are "very concerned" about how domestic political uncertainty could affect their investments, according to ASB's latest Investor Confidence Survey, though that anxiety has yet to translate into a broader shift in actual investment behaviour.
Concern climbs, but action doesn't follow
A further 46% of respondents described themselves as "concerned," bringing total concern about the local political environment to 86%. That very-concerned figure has climbed steadily over the past year, from 25% in the September 2025 quarter to 32%, then 30%, and now 40% in the June 2026 quarter — though ASB noted the question wording changed this quarter, meaning results aren't directly comparable with earlier periods.
Global geopolitical and economic concern followed a similar pattern, hitting a record high of 57% "very concerned" this quarter, up from 40% a year earlier. Despite the elevated anxiety on both fronts, ASB found no increase in the proportion of investors making or considering changes to their portfolios as a result.
ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said this gap between sentiment and action is a reassuring signal rather than a cause for concern in itself.
"Politics can create uncertainty and it is understandable that New Zealanders are paying close attention, especially with a general election coming up,” Tennent-Brown said. “But concern on its own is not a reason to step away from a well-considered investment plan, particularly as many investments perform as expected, with the US share market a positive example of all-time highs despite the uncertain geopolitical backdrop."
He added that reacting to short-term political noise carries its own risks for investors.
"Markets can move quickly in response to news, and trying to time those movements can mean missing periods of recovery and growth. For most investors, the more useful focus is whether their portfolio remains diversified, aligned with their goals and appropriate for their timeframe," Tennent-Brown said.
That caution appears to be playing out in practice: survey data shows only 2% of investors took no action at all this quarter, with the most common response — educating themselves more about financial markets and investments — cited by 39%, well ahead of more defensive moves like shifting into less risky investments (22%) or rebalancing portfolios (20%).
Rental property's appeal slides further
The survey also found a sharp fall in how investors view rental property as a return-generating asset, with just 10% now nominating it as offering the best return, down significantly on the prior quarter. That sentiment lines up with the broader market backdrop — QV data shows the average New Zealand house price fell 1.2% over the past year to $898,799 in July 2026.
Tennent-Brown linked the decline directly to the property market's prolonged flat patch, saying investors whose main holding was a rental property were significantly more likely to report being very concerned about the local political outlook, "likely seeing potential for change in the rental market affected by local policy."
Overall net investor confidence fell five percentage points over the quarter to 1%, matching the level last recorded in June 2025, when Trump-era tariff policy first took hold.
Tennent-Brown said the distinction between concern and action is one worth holding onto.
"The survey tells us people are concerned, but they are not necessarily acting on that concern. That is a sensible distinction,” he said. “Staying invested through periods of uncertainty can help investors participate in market gains, while a long-term plan provides a stronger foundation than reacting to any political cycle."
Stay informed with the latest housing market trends and mortgage insights — subscribe to our free daily newsletter.
