Rising unemployment and cost pressure across the Tasman prompt some expats to head home
The steady flow of New Zealanders crossing the Tasman for better pay and lifestyle is beginning to ease, as Australia's economy shows signs of strain. Provisional Stats NZ figures show a net 28,500 people moved from New Zealand to Australia last year, down from more than 31,000 the year before.
Among those reconsidering is Michael Valk, a Kiwi who has run a small business in Brisbane for more than three decades. He told 1News he no longer employs staff "because it's just too expensive," and is now planning to return to the South Island.
"I actually feel that I've been going backwards," Valk said. "I don't like the way Australia's heading. I figure if I'm gonna go through it, I might as well go through it in the country I was born in."
Labour markets diverge
The shift comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted its official cash rate three times this year in an effort to curb inflation, a move now flowing through to employment. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released last week show unemployment climbing to 4.5%, its highest level since the post-COVID period, while wage growth has slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.4% a year earlier.
New Zealand's unemployment rate remains higher in absolute terms at 5.6%, according to recent Stats NZ data — but HSBC chief economist for Australia, New Zealand, and global commodities Paul Bloxham said the trend lines are moving in New Zealand's favour.
"New Zealand's labour market is certainly looking like it's moving into better shape than Australia's over time," Bloxham said, pointing to job advertisement data as a leading indicator.
"I think one of the real clear signs of that is job advertisements have been rising in New Zealand and they've been trending lower in Australia," he said.
Kiwi departures fall as return migration builds
That slowdown is consistent with separate Stats NZ data, which ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa notes departures have been declining steadily since May 2025, even though volumes remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Despite the shift, wages in Australia remain 20–30% higher than in New Zealand on average, meaning the decision to return is rarely just about the numbers. Still, Bloxham suggested the broader trend could influence both future migration decisions and those already living abroad.
"I think the tide has turned," he said, adding that the shift "should start to show through in terms of some of the decisions Kiwis make, whether they move to Australia or stay at home, and some of those who've already moved here may make decisions to move back to New Zealand."
That shift is already being felt on the ground. Advisers may already be seeing renewed enquiry from returning clients looking to rebuild their borrowing position at home.
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